#AOSHQDD- MuLaw Poll Wisconsin: Obama 49 Romney 46

Likely Voters.

Will update as info trickles out.
I have said repeatedly that I trust Marquette over everybody else as they have been great so far calling the Badger state.

Previous poll: Romney 45% Obama 50%
Their latest poll finds (per Poll chief Charles Franklin) Ryan's selection may have increased Romney's chances in the state: Romney 46% Obama 49%
(July Pol Obama lead by 8 )

WI VOTER'S RATING OF ROMNEY'S PICK OF RYAN:
31% EXCELLENT
27% PRETTY GOOD

16% only fair
19% poor

Ryan Approval:
"MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll
WI view of Ryan pick is more favorable than national view (shown in Gallup), poll director Charles Franklin says. #mulawpoll"

Choice to pick Romney reflects good/poorly on Romney's decision making 55%/31%

IS RYAN QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT?
55% YES
38% NO

MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR ROMNEY B/C OF ROMNEY?
29%/13%less

WHAT KEEPS OBAMA IN THE GAME:
+8 approval vs -10 for Romney.

WHAT HELPS ROMNEY:
Room for Republican unity (right now at 88%), expansion in Metro Milwaukee/GreenBay.
Surprising numbers for non-white vote: 41% of WI hispanics vote for Romney, 52% Obama. African-Americans: 11% Romney 89% Obama

WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE:
Romney is losing the GreenBay/Appleton area by <2%, flip that with some ads and stops, and beef up the WOW (Milwaukee Metro only going to him by 7% needs to beef that up). That will flip -3 to even or +

Senate matchup between Tommy Thompson and Tammy Baldwin:
Previous: Thompson 48% Baldwin 43%
NEW POLL:Thompson 50% Baldwin 41%
Moving Wisconsin Senate seat to Solid Pickup. State may tighten a bit due to the nature of the state but a widening lead with no traction for Baldwin means a win.

Waiting for D/R crosstab, PPP's R+2, Ras R+2...(very few solid independents per C.F.: 9% of the whole state...still waiting for D/R)-- MULAW: D+1, considerable shift from 4 years ago, more D than recall.

TURNOUT WILL BE CRITICAL- Per director Franklin very few persuadable voters (just like in recall)

VOTER SCHISM- supports keeping Medicare as is, yet also insists "major changes needed" to keep solvent, by same amount 55%

Other polling for WI-President:
Rasmussen Romney +1 (LV)
PublicPolicyPolling Romney +1 (LV)
CNN Obama +4 (RV sample)

**Quinnipiac poll of WI coming tomorrow as well**

Standing by my call of Wisconsin as a lean (slightly) Romney: with the apparatus on the ground and Romney clearly spending money here, Ryan's pick has made the state very reachable. Waiting for more crosstab info. Three of three polls have shown the state shifting, tomorrow would be 4 for 4 if pattern continues. This is at WORST a tossup right now. During Wisconsin recall, Marquette's FINAL poll was closer than anyone else's. Poll director (Charles Franklin) is very reputable and approachable on twitter (@pollsandvotes), follow him please and support perhaps one of the most direct and thorough pollsters in the buisness. --flashback- Obama beat McCain by 13 points, so, yeah, he's facing quite a fuckening in the Badger state right now.
Follow me on twitter @conartcritic and hashtag #AOSHQDD for polls, breakdowns and tidbits through the general election.

posted by CAC at 01:23 PM

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