« Top Headline Comments 8-6-2012 | Main | David Pliffle: Why Sure I'll Take This $100,000 From A Company That's In Bed with the Mullahs of Iran »
August 06, 2012

Hey, Who's Up For A "Obama's Probably Going To Win In A Landslide" Story?

"Reporting" deep from the liberal cocoon public fool Michael Tomasky (you remember him from "Saying ObamaCare To the NAACP is Racist" and "Mitt the Wimp"-safe links) takes a look at a closely divide country facing 8+% unemployment, stagnant growth, debt as far as the eye can see and decides, yeah, the country wants 4 more years of this! (as per HQ policy, no links for idiots).

There’s a secret lurking behind everything you’re reading about the upcoming election, a secret that all political insiders know—or should—but few are talking about, most likely because it takes the drama out of the whole business. The secret is the electoral college, and the fact is that the more you look at it, the more you come to conclude that Mitt Romney has to draw an inside straight like you’ve never ever seen in a movie to win this thing. This is especially true now that it seems as if Pennsylvania isn’t really up for grabs. Romney’s paths to 270 are few.

...

So if Pennsylvania is off the boards [for Romney], let’s look around. Imagine it’s election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states haven’t been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls haven’t closed, or the races are too tight to project just yet—Colorado and Nevada, say. Arizona has just been called for Romney. At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario I’m assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.

So it’s a six-vote Romney edge. They’re feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?

Not really. Let’s look at these West Coast states. Even though they’re still voting in California, obviously Obama is going to win it (55). And equally obviously, he’s going to win Washington (12) and Oregon (7), where neither side even bothered to spend a dime. Throw in Hawaii (4). Those 78 votes haul Obama up to 260. That’s something to keep in mind for election night: Whatever Obama’s number is at 10 pm Eastern, add those 78 EV’s—they’re a mortal lock, and a hefty insurance policy. If he wins Nevada (6) and Colorado (9), it’s over.

I've never seen someone so eager to make a fool of themselves in public as Tomasky is. One can only hope that other Democrats are just as stupid.

You can make a case that Obama will win in a close race but a landslide? No.

First of all, there's no state that was red last time that Obama will win this time, so any win is going to be smaller than before. Much smaller. So right there landslide is off the table.

More to the point, I just did a quick look at the Electoral College map (which you can purchase for your Android or Kindle Fire) and it's pretty easy to see Mitt winning, even without Pennsylvania or Virginia.


ec86.JPG

You can play around with the ap to build a case for a close win by Mitt or even a blowout and a tight win by Obama but that's about it.

I'm not saying Mitt's a lock to win but if the proposition is, who is more likely to win in a landslidee, all my money goes on Mitt.

digg this
posted by DrewM. at 09:24 AM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
5/8 Mex: "Posted by: Bertram Cabot, Jr. at December 16, 2017 ..."

JQ: "KT, saw your reply re: turnips/ greens-- thanks so ..."

Bear with Assymetrical Balls: "A good future movie thread might be movies that we ..."

blake: "Sigh. How about a complementary compliment? ..."

The Inexplicable Dr. Julius Strangepork: "Hi, is anyone still here? I used to raise dwarf r ..."

Stringer Davis [/i]]/b]: "But Hitchcock DID make a Titanic movie. He did the ..."

Northernlurker : "I thought In Cold Blood was a very good movie. ..."

blake: "Posted by: KT at December 16, 2017 08:54 PM (BVQ+1 ..."

Bertram Cabot, Jr.: " [i]Emperor of the North .. anyone ? Posted by: ..."

Hands: ""The Right Stuff" is very good. It can't be easy t ..."

troyriser: "I've seen 'The Passion of Joan of Arc' twice now. ..."

Harvey Weinstein: "Ain't nothing to phrenology neither. Posted b ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64