Jobless Claims Rise So We're Probably Going To Have To Talk About Gun Control and Romney's Taxes and Gay Marriage All August

Let's talk about everything but the important stuff, eh?

The number of U.S. workers filing applications for jobless benefits rose last week, continuing an uneven pattern that suggests job creation was likely modest in July.

Separately, factory orders unexpectedly fell in June, the latest sign that the slowing economy is sapping demand.

Initial jobless claims, an indication of layoffs, increased by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended July 28, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast 370,000 new applications for jobless benefits last week.

How about our regularly-scheduled upward revision in last week's numbers?

Claims for the July 21 week were revised up to 357,000 from an initially reported 353,000.

There you go.

More "unexpected" declines in manufacturing.

Stolen from Hot Air, Pethokoukis notes an econometric-type election forecast, which chiefly looks at at economic indicators and US casualties in foreign war. The model is called the Bread and Peace model, appropriately enough.

Based on that forecast, Romney wins 52.5% of the two-party vote, Obama 47.5%. Which is a near-landslide.

The usual caveats about models created to fit, retroactively, already known data apply. Still, that is a nice tight line.

posted by Ace at 03:34 PM

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