« Top Ten Pieces of Bad Economic News The Media Isn't Covering | Main | As I Said: You Didn't Build That Quickly Becomes I Didn't Say That »
July 19, 2012

Rasmussen: Obama's Approval Rating With Uncommitted Voters Is A Glittering 63%
Wait, Did I Say 63%? My Error, I Meant 29%.

I always get those two confused, like "their" and "they're."

This is one of the most important polling stats out there. I wrote about this before. Larry Sabato looked at previous polls and had several conclusions: 1, there are not very many swing voters at all. 2, they're unenthusiastic about voting (which either causes, or is caused by, the fact that they're uncommitted and don't love either candidate).

And 3, they don't much like this Barack Obama character:

Swing voters had much more negative opinions of President Obama’s job performance than other voters. In fact, their opinions were almost as negative as those of Romney supporters. Only 11% of swing voters approved of Obama’s job performance compared with 6% of Romney voters. In contrast, 92% of Obama voters approved of the president’s job performance.

[Quoting Sabato, if that's not clear.]

Sabato's conclusion was that a higher-turnout election actually favored Romney, because if these unenthusiastic Obama critics actually make it to the polls, they'll vote against Obama (or against him about 70% to 30%).

Interestingly, Obama's down-and-dirty negative campaign dovetails nicely with his best strategy, which is to depress the vote among all but his most reliable partisans. Making the election about nothing except negative attacks should do that for him.

Even though Romney has an edge with these True Undecideds, they're small in number. Sabato, IIRC, pegged them at no more than 10%, and yesterday's CBS/NYT poll had it that only four percent were undecided. (Four percent?!)

Still, a 70/30 split with 5% of the population means a net gain of 2% in the overall vote (3.5% for Romney, 1.5% for Obama)-- assuming we can get these people to the polls, which, at the current moment, is in doubt.

Sabato noted of the True Undecideds...

...compared with voters supporting a candidate, swing voters were disproportionately white and female.

I don't know how "disproportionately" white and female they were, though.

Several crude methods of appealing to these voters occur to me, but they're so obvious I won't insult you by noting them.

Free Shoes? So suggests Dr. Spank. I sense a riff.


Thanks to @gabrielmalor.



digg this
posted by Ace at 01:27 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
JB1000, EAJ: "I am hoping Mr. Kimmel has the 'joy' of being told ..."

Ruthless: "Gawd, I gotta go eat something. You guys are addic ..."

katya the designated driver: "We cut our cable two years ago. Rarely miss it. ..."

Bitter Clinger and All That (Back from the Dead): "One mo' step, i'll juke you. ..."

HILLARY!!!: "Try and take the hot sauce outta my purse!  I ..."

Nevergiveup: "it's not your night. Posted by: Donna&&&&&&V. at ..."

Tami[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "505 Tami- Thank you for the reply. Answered Pos ..."

illiniwek: "wow ... most of the way through the "emotional con ..."

Ladylibertarian: "I first read that as "shaved" and proceeded to dry ..."

sven10077: "439 Posted by: Eromero at October 16, 2017 09:31 P ..."

josephistan: ">> I first read that as "shaved" and proceeded to ..."

chavez the hugo: "502: brilliant. an empty lambeau would be one for ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64