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July 11, 2012

Obama's Support Among Blue Collar White Men Falls... Lower Than Walter F'n' Mondale's

Romney isn't going to win blacks. But if he doesn't win blacks as badly as McCain did last time, it's a win.

And Obama is not going to win blue collar white men. That's one of the most conservative-tilting groups in America. Nevertheless, it's a big cohort, so Obama can't afford to lose them too badly.

In 2008, he won 39% of their support, a pretty good level for a Democrat. In fact, that was the high-water mark for Democrats with the blue-collar white male cohort.

Walter Mondale only garnered 31% of their support in 1984, and was blown out.

And Obama?

Just 29%.

It's not all upside. Romney's only attracting 56% of their support, so he has a fair amount of persuading to do.

But Obama's had three and half years to make an impression, and Romney's only had a few months.

It should also be noted that minorities now make up a lot more of the electorate:

Demographic change is the silver lining for Obama in these shifting patterns of political support. As recently as 1992, non-college whites cast an absolute 53 majority of all votes, and minorities just 12 percent, with college whites contributing the remaining 35 percent. By 2008, minorities had increased to 26 percent and non-college whites fallen sharply to 39 percent of the votes, with college whites holding steady at 35 percent, according to the exit polls.

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posted by Ace at 07:43 PM

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