Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!



Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups





















Overnight Open Thread (6-24-2012) | Main | Top Headline Comments 6-25-12
June 24, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby (tmi3rd)

Good evening, Morons and Moronettes. I'm tmi3rd, and tonight, we take a moment to try to make some sense of the very uncooperative Tropical Storm Debby. Thanks to Maetenloch for letting me jump in so soon after posting the ONT. Thanks, bro.

As of 7 PM CDT, Tropical Storm Debby was nearly stationary about 115 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, FL, or 195 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Top sustained winds are 60 miles per hour, and the minimum central pressure was 990 millibars, or 29.23 inches. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border east to the Suwanee River in Florida. A Tornado Watch is in effect over the majority of the west coast of the Florida peninsula

Discussion below the fold...


TSDebby.gif

Image via www.wunderground.com, http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201204_5day.html

Because Debby is so large and so poorly-defined, it's been a real pain to forecast with any confidence where the storm will go. Nonetheless, because it's comparatively close to land, its main effects will be flooding rains in the the Florida Panhandle and west-central Florida. Also, seas are 4-6 feet in Apalachee Bay and Waccassa Bay, and as high as 1-3 feet all the way over to the Louisiana coast. This means that crews are pulled off of oil rigs, so you may see an increase in gas prices for a few days.

So what's so messy about the forecast of this storm? Well, there are a few major elements in play in terms of where it's going to go and how fast the center of circulation will get there. First of all, there's a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains, and a surface-level high is building and pushing south. One of the models shows a low pressure trough building over the East Coast, which would pull the storm north and east. However, that would be an awfully quick development, so the National Hurricane Center doesn't appear to be biting on that solution at the moment.

A somewhat more plausible solution has the surface high working its way south and blocking motion of the storm, allowing it to meander around until the high pressure over the Central Plains begins to weaken and push off to the east. If that happens, the storm may take a slight northwestward jog. However, by then, one could reasonably expect that it'll be on land, and just be a big rainmaker.

So what?

Well, first of all, the good news is that you probably won't see Debby strengthen into a hurricane. It'd need a lot more room to spin up and get organized, and tropical storms don't like interacting with land. The bad part of that is that places from Tampa to Apalachicola may be looking at anywhere from ten to fifteen inches of rain over the next several days while the storm makes up its mind where to go.

Nobody in the forecasting business is terribly confident in where this storm will wind up. For the moment, if you're anywhere from Pensacola to Tampa, be ready for lots of rain and coastal flooding. If you're on the west coast of Florida, some of those bands of thunderstorms could spin up a small tornado or two. I'm seeing reports of tornadoes all the way down towards Miami, so just keep an eye out.

Once Debby is inland, if you're in eastern Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas, be ready for some heavy rain towards the end of this week. More people die from inland flooding than any other element of tropical storms.

I'd love to give you more specifics of inland flooding, but I'm definitely no hydrologist (Mrs. tmi3rd is a meteorologist), so I'm going to stick to what I know.

I'll be floating around until about 11 PM CDT, and you can always find me on Twitter at my handle if you've got any questions or anything I can help you with. In the meantime, stay safe- we've got a heat wave going on in the Midwest, and tropical weather in the Southeast... must be summer!

-tmi3rd

digg this
posted by Open Blogger at 10:31 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Grumpy and Recalcitrant: ". NOOD ART. Go get your first. ..."

Doof: "[i]Can we stop with the "that plane was going so f ..."

It's me donna : "The thing is, we just don't know if they can boost ..."

Moron Robbie - What about the confirmed SS snipers in the 2nd story window watching the shooter: " Some of the lowest hanging fruit for AI to replac ..."

[/i][/b][/s][/u]I used to have a different nic: "[i]That bubble will burst and be replaced by somet ..."

blake - semi lurker in marginal standing (tT6L1): "I really wish people would quit dumping on Preside ..."

Moron Robbie - What about the confirmed SS snipers in the 2nd story window watching the shooter: "I don't think you should underestimate someone who ..."

bed head: "Can we stop with the "that plane was going so fast ..."

SMOD: "Los Angeles County’s Board of Supervisors un ..."

18-1: "[i]Some of the lowest hanging fruit for AI to repl ..."

Lizzy[/i]: ">>Kamala Harris has no accomplishments as senator ..."

Kumala Word Salad: "AI is already displacing workers. Anything data re ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64