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June 19, 2012
Analysis of Pennsylvania Undervote Indicates Keystone State Is In PlayThe "undervote" is the count of people who vote in an election, but choose, for whatever reason, to not vote for a candidate in an uncontested primary, or some no-name. If Democratic voters come out to vote in Democratic primaries, and dutifully vote for Congressman, AG, and so forth, but elect not to bother voting for Obama, what does that mean? Mike Flynn says it means trouble for Obama. [T]hese numbers are based solely on Democrat primary voters. There are no Republican or Independent voters in this. This is Obama's base. That said, look at the map above, in only about three counties is he winning the support of more than 90% of Democrat voters in an uncontested primary. In over 27 counties, he is winning less than 70%. In a few counties, he is winning 55%. One caveat here is that Obama's lowest undervote percentages are in the Philadelphia area, and those infamous Bucks County suburbs that put the Democratic candidate on top in every recent presidential election. Those are the most populous counties (well, those and Pittsburgh), so a county-by-county analysis is worse for Obama than the actual statewide undervote. In the Philly area, the undervote is, it is said (this disagrees with Flynn) "well within historical norms," and is only 15% or thereabouts. But that means that statewide it's higher, around 20% or so, or more. Over at the liberal New Republic, analyst William Galston puts Pennsylvania in the swing column, and that was before this data was published. The latest Quinnipiac survey gives the president a 6-point edge (46-40), but his support remains well below 50 percent, as it has in most previous surveys for the past six months. Obama’s job approval among Pennsylvanians stands at only 46, versus 49 percent who disapprove of his performance as president. Forty-eight percent think he deserves to be reelected, while 47 percent do not. And 56 percent are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their state, versus 43 percent who are satisfied. Southwestern Pennsylvania shares some commonalities with bordering West Virginia, including coal, and voters who are socially conservative but economically in favor of big government's allegedly helping hand. It also now features a significant undervote for President Obama, and perhaps a growing desire on the part of Democrats to skip the presidential race entirely. Three Democrats from West Virginia, including first-term Sen. Joe Manchin, are skipping the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C. this September, where President Obama will formally receive the party's presidential nomination. He says he'll just stay home and keep working for West Virginia, or something. | Recent Comments
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