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May 31, 2012

For Team Obama, Now Is Not The Time To Panic.
Tomorrow Is the Time To Panic.

Another jobs figure is being released. Analysts guess it will be in the 133,000 to 150,000 jobs gained range, which, um, one dummy calls some kind of major improvement over last month's 115,000.

These numbers are below the replacement rate, folks. More people enter the work force (or used to, anyway) in a month than this.

There may be some expectations-gaming here, as Ed highlights one analyst saying... brace for something horrid, like 54,000.

And it gets worse.

“Nonfarm payroll has been decelerating since the beginning of 2012,” William told CNBC.com. “The probability of an acceleration of that down move is high over the next two quarters.”

The data lost positive momentum after failing to hold above the 2011 high of 251,000, and has also remained beneath a multiyear ceiling of around 340,000. During January 2012 “the loss of upside momentum triggered a DeMark exhaustion signal,” he said.

An exhaustion signal usually indicates a reversal in the trend. The DeMark Indicators are a collection of sophisticated market-timing tools created by Tom DeMark over the course of nearly 40 years in the financial industry.

“The key level that everyone in the market should be focusing on [for nonfarm payrolls] is 54,000,” William added. “I think that over the multimonth period the probability favors that we test this area and maybe move into negative territory if it is confirmed.

The funny thing is that the media is currently saying that analysts expect 133,000 or 150,000 jobs. But if the numbers fall short of that, they'll suddenly start talking about "exceeding the 54,000 jobs predicted some."

The next two months are really Obama's last gasp. If this guy is anywhere near right, and we're entering a very very low period (after the previous period merely being very low), the election is all but over.

If it goes negative -- forget it. Forget it. Forget it.

It's done.

@rdbrewer4 linked this Barrone piece in the sidebar, asking, straight-up, if the Obama campaign guys are "kidding themselves" if they think their small-ball, client-service, silly-negative-hit campaign is going to win it for them, given that the economy is in the crapper and has been all of Obama's term.

This is what I never understood about all this "Obama is the favorite" chatter. I do not rule out the chance that Obama could win. People have won elections under bad economic conditions (FDR was reelected three times, while presiding over a depression many feel he extended and deepened).

But it's astonishing to me that anyone could imagine that someone could be favored under such circumstances -- or, even more preposterously, that Obama had the election virtually locked-up.

What could this possibly be based upon? The strong emotional bond the liberal media and DC have with Obama? Do they really imagine that the millions of lightly-partisan, results-oriented, apolitical voters out there love Obama just for being Obama, as they do?

Wouldn't it be more likely that such voters are more interested in actual facts on the ground, tangible improvements in their lives, than partisan "triumphs" like same-sex marriage and all the myriad Historical Firsts Obama lays claim to?

Do they really believe people give a shit about this?

Let me put it another way: Does the political class and media class really believe the public is more interested in the personal advancement of Barack Obama than their own advancement, as they do?

Because I don't believe that. I don't believe you need to hate Obama to agree with the proposition: I care greatly, greatly more about my own fortunes under Obama's governance than I do about Obama's personal political victories. In fact, I rather care nothing about that last one at all, except to the extent it's reflected in the former.

Meanwhile, first quarter GDP, initially estimated at a weak-pulsed 2.2%, has been revised down (shocker!) to a bleeding-out 1.9%.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment indicator just fell the most since 2008, and the Dow itself dropped 161 points yesterday, on concerns about Europe and the deteriorating economy.

We are now five short months before the election. The economy has been in depression (yes, depression) since Obama took office. He can make no credible case he's managed to improve it -- a Democratic pollster, Sidney Greenberg (if I recall his name correctly) says that focus-groups react hostilely to claims that the economy is recovering and doing well.

There are no signals it will improve, and now there are growing signals it will deteriorate still further.

Who exactly thought Obama would be favored, or even a near-lock, to win this election, and can the people who thought so now turn in their Prognostication Licenses now?

Rasmussen: Romney Leads Obama in Independents By Double-Digits. The overall lead is margin of error -- 46-44.

The lead with independents is 47 to 35, though.

To some extent I don't even care about polls. Polls, after all, are shaped by facts on the ground. People make choices based upon facts on the ground, which are then reflected in polls.

If you know the facts on the ground, you know the polls -- or you know, rather, what the polls will ultimately show.


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posted by Ace at 04:19 PM

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