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May 30, 2012
Caution & Optimism on Wisconsin, and a Thank YouNow, after all the public polling has consistently shown Walker up, there is this tiny voice in the back of my head saying, "they could be wrong." It has been there the whole time, especially after weeks of positive data for Walker. Hell, the Democrats took THIS long to push out a tied poll that oversampled Madison and Milwaukee. They waited until Wednesday before. Which I had predicted would happen in previous threads. But no matter. Incorporating all the Democratic push polls on a trend line, Pollster finds the race a close one, with Walker up less than a point. When these push polls are removed, as Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight thinks they should (and he's not exactly sympathetic to Walker), Walker's lead explodes. So what if they are actually somewhat right? There are a few things that can happen that can cost Walker the race at this point. I'll refute most of them, but the "sleepless nights" biggie is number 4: 1) ALL the data available is wrong. 2) The Republican GOTV does not materialize in the Milwaukee burbs, Green Bay, and the western upper third of the state. Again, hardly likely. These areas have the largest victory offices for Walker, have had tremendous requests for absentee ballots, and may match or beat Dane County turnout levels (see the Brookfield statistics above). 3) Analysis of margin victories per region are way off. Barrett has a very, very narrow path that involves explosive turnout OUTSIDE of his base cities and depressed Republican turnout. The recent push polls showing a closer race may backfire on Democratic plans to psyche out Republicans- by convincing them that the race is actually closer, you give the right an even stronger reason to turn out and save their guy. 4. Overconfidence amongst the Republicans. I get a lot of you are pissed that we keep talking about Wisconsin. Every day, another poll, or news article, or map. We are almost through on this. After recall night coverage Tuesday, I will be taking a short hiatus from co-blogging here. I'll be dropping by to update the daily tracker, maybe shoot Ace an email, but constantly watching all the info trickling in wears you down, and I need to be ready to help out when the general election heats up. My fiancee has been incredibly supportive, loading me with coffee to stay awake to get the jump on the latest bit down the pipe. I want to thank all of you in Wisconsin and elsewhere for posting various reports, tweeting over polling and commentary, and emailing me some good leads on this race. I also want to thank Ace publicly for giving me the opportunity to share all of this data ripping through my brain. After weeks of effort, the guest bloggers, morons, moronettes, and lurkers who are collectively working on bringing full coverage Tuesday night will, with a little luck, cap off what I hope has been a helpful and accurate resource for you. We won't spin the results and will make the call, even if its the one we loathe the most. I thank all of you for taking the news shared here productively, and hopefully the fruit of the efforts of millions involved in this fight will be victory for Walker in six short days. Thanks for following along, and remember: this fight is far from over. Do your part. | Recent Comments
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"Whenever I hear "Gary, Indiana", my mind jumps to ..."
Diogenes : "Gary Indiana Gary Indiana Gar... What a shitty ..." [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "…Keith Bass will serve as my Assistant Secre ..." [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "…Michael Duffey will serve as the next Under ..." [/i][/b]andycanuck (hovnC)[/s][/u]: "Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social @Trump ..." Ben Had: "Santa Claus is coming on a boogie woggie Choo Cho ..." IC - Cope Harder, Liberals: "Gary, Indiana during Christmas goes on my bucket l ..." ace: ">>>5 Gary, Indiana? Maybe after binging on meth an ..." sock_rat_eez: "LOL! ..." Puddleglum, cheer up for the worst is yet to come: "Gary, Indiana? Maybe after binging on meth and Rip ..." Doof: "Howdy ace! ..." Eromero: "Kefauver died in 1963 when Clinton was 17, so some ..." Recent Entries
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