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May 27, 2012

Wisconsin Recall Race- Official #AOSHQDD Call

Walker wins by a margin in the mid-single digits.

Since those far more professional than me at this have started changing their official calls, time to go ahead and do it here, jinxing be damned.

Currently, including the Democrats' own numbers, Walker has led in ten straight polls. His lead per the Democrats is as narrow as 2 points, per public polling firms, as high as 12. I expect the truth to lie around 5-7 points. We have seen a drive by Democrats to get their voters to the polls early, and so far over 3500 voters have cast in Milwaukee county. Before that scares you, consider that is barely 1% of all votes cast in the county in 2010. They are driving to get as many of their voters out now to help build some momentum and get those who may lose interest. Most of Walker's voters will show up on election day or via absentee.

I am in pretty solid company with my projection. Election trackers and prognosticators at the New York Times, Politico, and Larry Sabato of the Crystal Ball all agree that Walker will end up beating the recall. Even the amateurs at Dave Leip's Election Atlas are calling it for the governor by a very wide margin.
Just to beat out the guy who gets in before the troll, Intrade had Walker at 93% earlier this morning.

We will see at least one poll, probably a Democratic one, showing Barrett up or tied before this week is out. It happens every cycle, and it will get a lot of attention and press because it sells papers and makes for a good story (a blowout win loses a lot of media interest). It will likely get the "uh oh" web-traffic-magnet posts on a few conservative blogs by people who should know better. Don't let it discourage you from doing your duty if you live in Wisconsin. Barring a shock landslide of data erupting this week and contradicting everything we have seen, this race is Walker's supporters' to lose.

Volunteer to drive voters to the polls.
Volunteer to poll watch.
Vote.

Don't fuck it up.


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posted by CAC at 11:56 AM

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