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May 24, 2012

AOSHQ Wisconsin Recall Projection 5/24

Time again for the official recall projection, based on the latest available data and on the ground reports. Some polling came out since this projection was created last night (We Ask America giving Walker a twelve point lead, Reason-Rupe giving him an eight point lead) but with some caution taken into account, here is the latest:


Governor Walker is currently destroying Mayor Barrett in solidly half of the state, and tied /trailing in the more Democratic western half. The mayor currently enjoys a projected 80k vote lead in Milwaukee county, and an 85k vote lead in Dane, FAR short of what he needs to remove the incumbent governor. While his expected performance in his home county is stronger than Klopp enjoyed, it is currently reflecting a more less-interested bloc of Democratic voters in the state's largest city. Madison and its environs are on track to deliver big numbers against Walker, but it takes BOTH cities to come out strong to give Walker a fight. Despite initial bragging about early voter numbers, the fact that more voters are doing so in the smaller of the two counties just reiterates what we have been seeing: a galvanized right, a sputtering left.

The race in Wisconsin mirrors the 2008 Presidential election on a small scale. One side had enormous volunteer drives, phone centers, a tremendous fundraising and advertising advantage, and polling on its side. The other has clung desperately to eviscerating every bit of data that comes down the pipe, clinging to desperate crumbs that still show them losing, and spending their last dollars, weeks late, playing catch up with the other's effort. Only in the Badger state for this recall, it is the Republicans who are enjoying, celebrating, and focused.

Barrett's claims of decreasing crime in Milwaukee have been destroyed by a frightening investigation showing misrepresentation of violent incidents. Walker's claims of saving the state tremendous capital and even some public jobs meanwhile has been verified. The John Doe investigation itself is drawing negative attention. Liberal activists and bloggers are beginning to cannibalize on who screwed this up, and some are arguing it was never a good idea in the first place.

Tom Barrett has, as of today, 6 days to effectively change anything, and that looks highly unlikely. Both teams are now in GOTV mode, so opinions have set like the shoe of an ignoramus in concrete.

#AOSHQDD currently projects that Scott Walker is in a fantastic position, IF his supporters continue their drive and vote, to retain his position as Governor of Wisconsin. Larry Sabato agrees. Every single poll taken since the recall primary shows him winning. He is.

Do not let him down.

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posted by CAC at 12:41 PM

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