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May 17, 2012

Five Things That Can Change the Wisconsin Recalls

On the high of a growing projected lead for Walker, enormous GOP enthusiasm, and an incresingly-depressed Democratic party, it is easy to overlook a few things. Or remembering to smack them down.

1- A heightened effort against the Lt Governor. This race remains very, very close, with the few Democrats who have abandoned the fight against Walker now focusing on this one. If the numbers reverse into her challenger's favor, more Democrats could potentially show, and close the top ticket race up. However, the overall trend is depression on the Dem end, elation on the Rs, so it would take an all-in against her to have such a damaging effect.

2- A John Doe investigation "surprise". Since the investigator is a Democrat, and this has been talked about at length by Democrats already, a last minute indictment may move the race by only a point or two. Wait too late (like the last week) and its political nature looks even more obvious, backfiring and hurting Barrett. Barrett has tomorrow and next week to pull such a trick out. Even then, the politcal nature of those involved, and Marquette polling showing more voters think it's politics and not serious (among those who already know about it), makes this "last straw to grasp" a weak one.

3- The DNC changes its mind and decides to go after Walker, caving into liberal group and blog pressure. Not very likely, but could boost Barrett.

4- Fraud. If the race isn't close, it won't matter. If Barrett reverses the trend, the last stand against it would be having pollwatchers.

5- The students of UW. If enough of them actually managed to file for absentees properly, they could help Barrett, but from the news I have gathered, that isn't likely. Their absence may even shrink the advantage Barrett will enjoy in Dane, not nearly enough to flip it but to make any hope of winning impossible.

On a more serious note, I visit quite a few election prediction sites and forums frequently, and came across several leftists who feel they have uncovered something ugly: everyone who has released a poll, or story about high R/low R turnout, or admitted disgust with the constant recalls, has been part of the Walker Agenda. Silly, said I.

But the more I thought about it, I realized how wrong we all have been. Dave Weigel, Greg Sargent, Scott Rasmussen, We Ask America's management, Tom Jensen of PPP, Markos Moulitsas, Marquette University, Professor Charles Franklin, and Professor Jonathan Zimmerman are clearly struggling to walk around with their pockets stuffed full of Koch cash. It's so obvious, it doesn't even require a cerebrum to reach such an obvious conclusion. We should all applaud the brave souls born with a stump-topped nervous system for uncovering this grave injustice.

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posted by CAC at 07:07 PM

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