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May 10, 2012

FIRST POST-PRIMARY POLL OUT OF WISCONSIN: WALKER 50% BARRETT 45%

NO BOUNCE FOR BARRETT (SO FAR).

The Governor leads his opponent by the same margin found by Daily Kos' PPP poll three weeks ago.

There are very few undecideds, as Marquette University, numerous pundits and we here at AOSHQ have said for a while. Just 2% of voters polled say they are undecided at this point, 2% are vying for a 3rd party choice, and 1% are presumably clueless. This was a poll of 500 Likely Voters, in case there were any questions about RV/LV.

From here on out, it is safer to follow Likely Voter models as we are getting a real sense (confirmed by Tuesday) of who is motivated for turnout. This isn't going to be a D+3 or D+2 or even D+1 crowd. At best for Barrett it looks to be about even, at worst, R+3 (again, pulling from the shock voter turnout amonsgt Republicans Tuesday). Ignore any "adult" or "registered" polling unless there is an LV subsample. Today's Rasmussen poll is R+3. Walker leads 51-43 with Independents.

PPP will be doing another poll for DailyKos, if this confirms the lack of a bounce Barrett has serious work to do if he hopes to knock out Walker.

Guess that turnout Tuesday really did indicate something.

Get the latest polls & projections via twitter here or search hashtag #AOSHQDD






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