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May 07, 2012

CAC's Wisconsin Recall Primary Predictions - Updated: Dearly Dedicated Democrats Daring to Dangle Down and Dance with the Division Devil and Descending into Doubly-Dangerous Discontent? Delightful!

Tuesday is the first leg of the big recall launched against Governor Scott Walker.
On the Democratic side, Tom Barrett will win by 12-15 points over former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. Falk is the weaker of the two Democrats when polled against the Governor, and for Republicans who would hope to make mischief, the perfect candidate to vote for since the primary is open to all voters.

I do not expect Falk to win in even a mayhem scenario, as it would require in excess of 175,000 Republicans voting in the Democratic primary to really affect the outcome. Walker has a nominal party challenger who is a fake Republican, so there is an incentive for GOP voters to stick (mostly) within their own party.

I expect a turnout of 900,000-950,000 voters in the Democratic primary, and about 250,000 to 350,000 voters in the Republican one. Besides the asterisk of opposition mentioned there is no competition on the Republican side so turnout will be lopsided.

Tom Barrett will enjoy a post-primary bounce in polling and will likely lead Walker in any releases by week's end. The challenge for Republicans, conservatives, Tea Party activists, and anybody else who gives a damn is getting Walker back on top again and keeping him there, narrowly.

There isn't an election as critical as this one until November, so if you haven't yet remember to donate to Scott Walker and if you live in Wisconsin volunteer your time.

I'll be tracking primary results on Tuesday for WI and IN here on AoSHQ. The Lugar-Mourdock battle in Indiana will be the more interesting, unless an unforseen wave of conservatives decide to pay back the Democrats for dragging Walker through all this mess and make Falk the D nominee. One can dream, I suppose.

Updated and bounced with word of a possible schism in the "unified" Democratic bloc. Don't take my word for it, of course. Just ask the folks over at Daily Kos:


I donít know why the rally was canceled, but there has been widespread, unsubstantiated speculation that the front runner in the primary, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, decided at the last minute not to attend. The rumor being spread is that Tom Barrett does not want to be seen in the company of union leaders and union members for fear of having images of his participation in the rally being used against him by the Walker campaign. Others are speculating that the whole thing is a last-minute dirty trick perpetrated by supporters of Kathleen Falk. Barrett has a wide lead over Falk in the most recent polls.

If lefty activists realize Barrett won't serve them directly, they may sit home and wait to build up a stronger candidate (who hasn't already lost to Walker) to run in 2014, just two years away. One of the things that could change the dynamic in the Badger state back into Walker's favor is a divided left. Looks like he might get a bit of that.

Already mentioned, but I will be watching the returns like a hawk for any clues of Democratic fervor or weakness. If you are a Republican and planning on doing anything other than voting tomorrow in the primary, beat yourself with a hammer. I'm not telling you which primary to vote in, though Walker could use a good show of support.


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posted by CAC at 06:30 PM

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