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April 17, 2012

REPUBLICANS LEAD IN ALL FOUR SENATE RECALLS IN WISCONSIN

Again, courtesy of the notoriously right-wing DailyKos/SEIU/PublicPolicyPolling.

District 21 is worrisome, with John Lehman (D) at 46% and Van Wanggaard (R-inc) at 48%, so Wisconsin Republicans need to keep their obvious engagement and momentum going. However, the rest range from cautiously hopeful to cakewalks for the Republicans:
SD-23
Kristin Dexter (D): 41
Terry Moulton (R-inc): 51
SD-29
Donna Seidel (D): 37
Jerry Petrowski (R): 51
SD-13
Lori Compas (D): 40
Scott Fitzgerald (R-inc): 54

Kos goes onto his usual bit about fighting the Democratic lull, which Tom Jensen explained rather bluntly:

When we polled Wisconsin in February, we asked a question about whether Wisconsin voters generally think the state should have recall elections. Around 10% of voters who disapprove of Scott Walker also said that they don't believe in recall elections. That means for a politician to get recalled they have to be really unpopular—even if 51 or 52% of voters disapprove of you, there are enough that don't believe in recalls that you can still survive. I think Walker—and the state senators at risk—probably need to have somewhere in the range of 54-55% of voters unhappy with them to get removed from office. That's a tough bar for Democrats to reach.
We saw in almost all the recalls last summer—whether it was Democratic or Republican Senators being targeted—that most undecided voters moved against the recalls in the closing stretch.

One thing we saw in all these state senate polls is a much more GOP-friendly electorate than 2008. That suggests to me that Democratic voters are suffering from recall fatigue— this has been going on for so long and we are now so far removed from the protests in early 2011 that the passion Democratic voters have for coming out and removing these folks from office just isn't what it was a year ago. It's possible those folks could be reenergized by the campaign over the next couple months but right now Democratic interest in these elections isn't what it needs to be.


I couldn't agree more with his assessment. People in Wisconsin are sick of the constant recalls, including many who probably attended protests a year ago. After a while, the energy just runs out, which is why as time has progressed we have seen the Governor performing stronger and stronger against his potential rivals.

Now, after enjoying the good news, here are my concerns.

1- Republicans think they have this "in the bag" and don't vote. To the morons and other readers living in Wisconsin, you have absolutely no excuse to miss voting in the recall to defend Governor Walker. None.

2- Republican turnout needs to be strong in the primary as well, as a show of strength and force. Discounting the Democratic hooligans, over 710,000 legit Republican voters voted in the Presidential primary. The Democratic turnout will be massive in the fight between Falk and Barrett. Topping or approaching their turnout will definitely show which side has more bite than bark.

3- Dane County. I don't think I need to explain this one at all.

4- Fundraising for the Republicans facing recall, all of them. If you haven't yet, donate for pete's sakes. Defeating every attempted recall all in the same night is looking more and more likely, we need to make them overwhelming.

5- A late night on June 5th.

Well, #5 doesn't concern me at all, because we at AOSHQ are ready. All day, all night coverage of the results will be available immediately following the closure of the polls, including direct reporting of results from a particular county that seems to take an awful long time reporting its results to CNN and the AP. I will also continue to track the polling and whispers I hear out of the Badger State, so keep your pudding and alcohol at the ready in the weeks ahead.






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