Sponsored Content
« Romney to Obama: Start Packing | Main | Overnight Open Thread (4-16-2012) »
April 16, 2012

A Defense and Rejection of Odd Partisan ID in Polling

Nobody knows what turnout is going to be until election day. You can make some pretty good guesses, based on visible enthusiasm for candidates, months out. But you aren't going to nail the actual breakdown in voter ID. Exit polling in 2010, for example, showed a 36R-28I-36D split. Independents broke heavily for the Republicans, and that made the difference in the Red Wave. For months, some firms started shifting over their partisan ID in sampling to the right, and these firms ended up exaggerating Republican strength (prime example : Pat Toomey, who won by 2% but averaged at least double that in polling).

In the hotly contested 2004 Presidential election, voter ID split 37R-26I-37D. Even when Democrats enjoyed their own wave of pain in 2006, voter ID was only 38D-26I-36R, a D+2 edge. Independents, again, made the pain far worse. The 2008 "landslide" for President Obama did see a marked shift in voter ID (one that Gallup and Rasmussen both insist has totally evaporated) from the 2004/2006 cycles to 39D/29I/32R, which marks (so far) the high point for Democratic advantage, D+7. President Obama and the Democrats have taken hits in their image with the voting public since, so that edge is not what it was.

I could understand polling firms showing between R/D+0 and D+4 for a Presidential cycle, as there are more registered Democrats than Republicans and the Republicans make up some of the gap by being more likely to vote. That phenomenon itself is no big secret, we often discuss the difference between registered voter and likely voter polls and results. But polling firms shitting out D+10, D+11, and higher samples have no excuse. It is incredibly laughable that these polls are averaged with those using far more realistic samples (R+0 to D+4), and in so doing prop up the President's numbers.

It is amazing what happens when polling firms switch from registered to likely. Public Policy Polling enjoys a high rate of accuracy for its final polling. When election day comes closer, they shift over from registered to likely voter pools, and, surprise, the Republicans typically (but not always) do better. Just look at their Walker poll already mentioned here. Polling this far out is meaningless not because the electorate can change it's minds, but the polling firms themselves often use voter samples that will, months later, look laughable.

Not accusing anyone here. Just a thought.
Oh, and by the way, Rasmussen is showing the generic congressional ballot preference is 46% for the Republicans, 36% for the Democrats. A bump I can only assume came either entirely from Scott's bald head or a "unity" bump coinciding with the end of the primary.

digg this
posted by CAC at 08:26 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
My Pimp Shot My Dealer: " All of my male great-grandparents, grandparent ..."

NALNAMSAM : "On this Memorial Day let us pause to remember all ..."

Ian S.: "[i]Off topic, but important: why did they quietly ..."

Notorious BFD: "[i]Margraten is very well-tended. I was over there ..."

Polliwog the 'Ette: "Inspector's step brother was 14 years older than h ..."

Tonypete: "SGT Albert Medis Jr USMC 1LT William (Wild Bill) ..."

Tom Servo: "47 Tom Servo, "To one of my best friends, Nick, w ..."

BignJames: "Posted by: LinusVanPelt at May 29, 2023 12:20 PM ( ..."

mediapostate: "Call me names but I like having stuff delivered. ..."

No Shirt Shylock: "Off topic, but important: why did they quietly dro ..."

Every child has a normal childhood, we're watching it be used as an attack: "Respectively don't put yourself in a bubble. We we ..."

gp: "According to wikipedia, Simonov's poem was address ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64