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March 28, 2012
More Election Porn (Gubernatorial Edition)
This last one isn't a "best case scenario" either. It's how I actually see the few gubernatorial elections going this year. The Demplosion of 2010 on this level was massive, with Republicans entering 2011 up 29-20-1 over the Democrats. If that was the Permian Mass Extinction, 2012 will be Chicxulub:
The biggest surprise is West Virginia. I see a rematch of 2011, but with more time on the side of the Republican who ran out before he could enjoy his surge late last year. Maloney barely lost to Governor Tomblin, 49-47, in a race that had started off giving the Governor a 30+ point lead. PPP even issued a caveat in their final polling (giving Tomblin a 47-46 edge) that Earl Ray could thank his lucky stars Maloney didn't have until November (the special election was held in October), because he would have lost.