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March 27, 2012

So, About Wisconsin...

Marquette U has been teasing me all morning with a poll that has finally come out, showing a much better picture for Mitt Romney, both in the primary and the general election:

In February, Romney trailed former Sen. Rick Santorum by 16 points in Wisconsin, but he now leads Santorum by eight points, 39% to 31%, the poll found.
Romney has also narrowed the gap between himself and Democratic President Barack Obama, if the presidential election were to be held today and they were the two major candidates. But Romney continues to trail Obama in Wisconsin – by five percentage points in the new poll, compared to 15 points a month ago...

Funny they use "but he still trails" instead of noticing he has slashed President "Inevitable Re-Election" 's enormous advantage down to just outside the margin of error. This trend will likely continue with the primary winding down, Wisconsin bounces right back to tossup status.

Governor Walker continues to face a tight race in his recall, but also continues to lead all the Democratic challengers, beating Falk 49-45, Barrett 47-45, Vinehout 49-41, and La Follette 49-42. His favorability and approval ratings have improved as well, up from 46/48 in February to 50/45 with the former, and up to 50/47 from 47/47 on the latter.

Wisconsin voters moved measurably to the right in 2010, with a bit of pushback from the unions in 2011. They are a far cry from the dark blue crowd of 2008, and seem willing, narrowly, to keep Walker around despite all the fuss. They also seem willing to vote for having two Republican senators, with Tommy Thompson averaging a healthy lead in polling over Tammy Baldwin. Perhaps we may see a trifecta of Republican victories in the Badger State after all.

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posted by CAC at 06:59 PM

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