Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support
« DOOM: Another day older and deeper in debt | Main | You Sad, Bro? Gawker Claims That NYT Reporters Working On A Story About The President's... Clinical Depression »
September 14, 2011

Nate Silver: Four Special Election Races Show 2010 Republican Wave Still Cresting

To save time, I will just say he includes a lot of caveats. And they're not fake caveats; they're real this-may-not-mean-anything caveats.

But caveats aside:

The Republican Mark Amodei, however, leads by 22 points as of this writing, an easy victory, meaning that he overperformed the P.V.I. [Partisan Voter Index, aka, Party advantage] by 12 points.

Meanwhile, Mr. Turner’s winning margin in the New York district, 8 percentage points as of this writing, represents a 18-point G.O.P. swing from the P.V.I.-projected results.

[Then add in Democrats overperforming in NY-23 by 17 points, but Republicans overperforming in that California race we lost, but not by all that much.]

... Republicans have overperformed the P.V.I. baseline by an average of 7 percentage points across the four races. That squares with what we saw in 2010, when Republicans won the popular vote for the House by an aggregate of 7 percentage points.

In other words, the four special elections, taken as a whole, suggest that Democrats may still be locked in a 2010-type political environment.

This, he says, probably wouldn't mean too many Republican pick-ups, as we've picked up most of the ones we can realistically grab. (But there is that cute scientist woman in Arizona who deserves a seat...)

But the real problem comes in Senate races. The Democrats have, once again, twice as many senators up for reelection than we do, and on top of that, they have a lot of blue senators in red states up for reelection.

He concludes:

Based on multiple regressions of the data, the evidence is suggestive, if not yet conclusive: President Obama is a stuttering clusterf*** of a miserable failure.

Okay, he didn't conclude that. But let's not split hairs.


digg this
posted by Ace at 10:04 AM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
wing: "good morning! ..."

J. S. Bach: "I like a well tempered clavier myself, as bait for ..."

Fewenuff: "Beware the ginger penguins! They'll steal your ..."

weft cut-loop [/i] [/b]: "That's a bit brave: @stegersaurus a newly-we ..."

gracepmc: "Souls.  At the Congressional Black Caucus Din ..."

cthulhu: "On another topic, I'm listening to (of all things) ..."

The Political Hat: "Koalas in the rain: http://www.youtube.com/watc ..."

The Political Hat: "Night all. Here is "Tread Lightly" by [i]Mastod ..."

jc: "You always have to inspect -- you might think th ..."

cthulhu: "482 Posted by: cthulhu at September 30, 2014 03:2 ..."

jc: "Posted by: cthulhu at September 30, 2014 03:22 AM ..."

cthulhu: "479 475 Yes, I have been looking over Amazon to ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64