« DOOM: Another day older and deeper in debt | Main | You Sad, Bro? Gawker Claims That NYT Reporters Working On A Story About The President's... Clinical Depression »
September 14, 2011

Nate Silver: Four Special Election Races Show 2010 Republican Wave Still Cresting

To save time, I will just say he includes a lot of caveats. And they're not fake caveats; they're real this-may-not-mean-anything caveats.

But caveats aside:

The Republican Mark Amodei, however, leads by 22 points as of this writing, an easy victory, meaning that he overperformed the P.V.I. [Partisan Voter Index, aka, Party advantage] by 12 points.

Meanwhile, Mr. Turner’s winning margin in the New York district, 8 percentage points as of this writing, represents a 18-point G.O.P. swing from the P.V.I.-projected results.

[Then add in Democrats overperforming in NY-23 by 17 points, but Republicans overperforming in that California race we lost, but not by all that much.]

... Republicans have overperformed the P.V.I. baseline by an average of 7 percentage points across the four races. That squares with what we saw in 2010, when Republicans won the popular vote for the House by an aggregate of 7 percentage points.

In other words, the four special elections, taken as a whole, suggest that Democrats may still be locked in a 2010-type political environment.

This, he says, probably wouldn't mean too many Republican pick-ups, as we've picked up most of the ones we can realistically grab. (But there is that cute scientist woman in Arizona who deserves a seat...)

But the real problem comes in Senate races. The Democrats have, once again, twice as many senators up for reelection than we do, and on top of that, they have a lot of blue senators in red states up for reelection.

He concludes:

Based on multiple regressions of the data, the evidence is suggestive, if not yet conclusive: President Obama is a stuttering clusterf*** of a miserable failure.

Okay, he didn't conclude that. But let's not split hairs.


digg this
posted by Ace at 10:04 AM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Little Mrs Spellcheck: "I once sang backup and played CBG on a song about ..."

Secret Square: ""RIH Jane Roe" Jane Roe, real name Norma McCorv ..."

Mr. Peebles: "[i]McCain, who I believe had the New York Times #F ..."

Skip: "Book Nood ..."

Sherman: " Jeepers! Mr Peabody sure has a nice library! ..."

rickl: "They've started LOX loading. Less than 40 minutes ..."

Hrothgar [/i][/u][/b][/s]: "Posted by: E Depluribus Unum at February 19, 2017 ..."

JAS: "To paraphrase Francois Rabelais, the blind sheik d ..."

Love Gun: "TheQuietMan at February 19, 2017 08:43 AM (auHtY) ..."

Skip: "Rediscovered History of Frederick Ii by Thomas Car ..."

E Depluribus Unum [i]: "Fox News Sunday on soon with Rush Limbaugh. ..."

Satan: "[i]"There will not be sprinkles." [/i] Au con ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64