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September 12, 2011

PPP: Republican Has Big Lead in Nevada-2, Too

First of all, don't miss the update on NY-9 that CAC posted last night.

A snippet of PPP's analysis in the 47/41 advantage for Republican Turner over Weprin:

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern.

It's a bad thing when your base doesn't turn out to vote for you.

It's a much worse thing when your base does turn out... but votes against you.

Regarding Nevada 2. Nevada 2 is the most Republican district in the state, because it excludes the cities. It's everywhere else. Natural conservative territory. Nope! Reno_Dave corrects me -- while the district excludes most of Las Vegas, it includes the Carson City, Sparks, and the biggest little city in the world, Reno.

I assumed that Nevada 2 would be a win, but a PPP poll (and PPP is a Democratic outfit, and does polls for Kos, too) said that the Republican Amodei was only one point ahead of the Democrat Marshall.

CAC has a theory about PPP. His theory is that they do all sorts of skewed polls to hearten Democrats, and claim they're ahead or at least close, except in the final poll, the one that counts, the one that goes into their W-L records when they pimp their accuracy to new clients. Then they get a little more... rigorous.

CAC predicted the final poll in Nevada 2 would show a distinct shift from the previous 1-point gap.

He was right. PPP now puts the race at a 13 point gap, 50-37.

Previously, Sharon Angle expressed interest in running for the seat. This poll finds she would have lost to the Democrat:

Here's one thing the numbers make very clear- Republicans dodged a bullet when Sharron Angle was kept out of the race. Only 24% of voters in the district have a favorable opinion of her to 63% with a negative one and in a hypothetical head to head with Marshall she would trail 47-40. The fact that Amodei polls 20 points better than Angle really makes you wonder what would have happened to Harry Reid with a serviceable opponent.

Sorry to rub that in. But I'm going to continue my crusade, insisting that Candidate Quality and Crossover Appeal matters quite a bit in elections, until it's accepted, and not pooh-poohed in favor of "ideology and cultural affinity with the conservative base are the only things that matter" model.

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posted by Ace at 01:01 PM

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