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September 11, 2011

Final Polling for NY-9 from PPP:

Turner (R) 47% Weprin (D) 41%
More numbers per PPP's twitter:
37% in NY-9 say Israel 'very important' to their votes. They support Turner over Weprin 71-22.

Weiner's favorability in NY-9: 29/53. (So much for Weiner trying to run again for this district, eh?)

22% of Jewish voters in NY-9 approve of Obama's handling of Israel. 68% disapprove.

Turner's approval numbers: 45%/30%.

Weprin's: 39%/36%.

From @PPP:

Weprin actually has positive favorability numbers. If Dems lose this race blaming it on Weprin it is an excuse and ignores the bigger issues.

What is one of those bigger issues?

President Obama's approval rating in this district: 31%.

In fact per PPP, Obama would lose this district 42-46 to Romney and only edge Perry 44-43.

This, combined with the Magellan Poll giving the Republican a 5 point lead, and the Siena poll giving him a 6 point lead, should give us cautious confidence.
The finger pointing post-election amongst Democrats if Turner indeed pulls it off will be popcorn-worthy.

The moneyshot quote from Public Policy Polling:

One final note on the poll and what perhaps should concern Democrats most of all. 55% of voters in the district report having voted for Obama in 2008, which is the actual percentage of the vote he got in the district. Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern.

Losing over a third of your "base" isn't even a really big cause for concern. Repeated elsewhere, it is a cause for pulling a LBJ.

My prediction, a viral video replay, and a link to help Turner all below.

My Official Projection:
Turner 52% Weprin Grade Stupid 47% Other <1%

And of course go here to see how you can help Turner in the final push.

Note- if any of these numbers don't show up immediately on the PPP website, there is usually a delay between Jensen's tweets and the published poll. I have mocked PPP in the past, but they bring their A-game to their last minute polling and ask questions I really wished others would think of. Hats off to them for that.

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posted by CAC at 10:24 PM

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