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September 01, 2011

What if President Obama's Popular Vote Share Matched His Gallup Approval Rating?

Just yesterday President Obama's approval rating stood at 38%. Previously Gallup had released state by state approval ratings taken from the first half of this year, before his recent collapse to under 40% (and they still looked atrocious).

What would the electoral map actually look like if the President's popular vote share matched his approval rating?

A warning, this is pudding worthy, but keep in mind this is purely theoretical and nowhere near anyone's current projections (including mine).

First Official AoS Electoral Projection for next year will be unveiled next week, but enjoy our new map, created by John E:


AoS Gallup Approval = Pop Vote Scenario

Stressing this a second time, this is not the way 2012 looks right now. Far from it. Still, as a historical comparison this would be the largest beating of an incumbent President ever. Hoover carried almost three times the electoral votes the President would in this scenario, Carter twice as many.

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posted by CAC at 01:04 PM

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