Mark Levin: The Hell With 2012, The Fight Is Now | Main | Preference Stampede: Gallup Shows Obama with 50% Disapproval, 40% Approval
Corrected: The 40-50 is the New 3-Day Rolling Average
July 29, 2011

Recovery Summer II: First Quarter Growth Revised Down To 0.4%

I actually know this is a double-post, and that Drew mentioned it earlier.

But it's such a big thing I want it to have a headline.

Since I've been blogging I've noticed that all GDP estimates are biased towards the average. When the economy is growing, early estimates lowball the figure, and later estimates and final numbers put it higher; when the economy is faring poorly, early estimates highball the figure, and later estimates and final numbers put it lower.

Exception: When there is a huge growth spurt in one quarter, those estimates are usually overstated, highballed.

It's like there's some glitch in the algorithm that starts at a default rate of growth of 2.5%, and the algorithm resists deviations away from this.

Our first quarter growth rate was said to be 1.9%. Which is not good at all. Pretty damn bad, actually. But at least it's not 0%.

Well, it turns out it was pretty damn close to 0%.

Now, supposedly, the growth in Q2 was a pitiful 1.3%, which is awful, and is even lower than the 1.8% expectation by economists.

But how likely is it that 1.3% even holds up? Any bets it gets revised down to... less than zero?

First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from 1.9 percent.

Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter.

And 2010's fourth quarter was... yes, sharply revised down too, by almost a full percentage point.

In addition, fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 2.3 percent pace from 3.1 percent, indicating that the economy had already started slowing before the high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan hit.

The only thing here that comes close to helping Obama is the fact the recession turns out to have been worse than estimated, too:

Data released on Friday showed the 2007-2009 recession was much more severe than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1 percent instead of 4.1 percent.

...

The economy needs to grow at a rate of 2.5 percent or better on a sustained basis to chip away at the nation's 9.2 percent unemployment rate.

But that doesn't really help him. For one thing, people are tired of excuses.

For another thing, a sharp downturn has usually been followed by a sharp upturn in the recovery phase -- the "V" shaped recovery people talk about (down sharply, then up sharply).

This is "L" shaped, down and then flat. It may in fact be a double-dip; we are on the verge of entering the Obama Recession. (BTW, Obama: Since you've proclaimed the recession ended two years ago, you really can't now claim this second recession is the same recession as the one you began with.)

So what's changed now?

Ironic "More Cowbell" picture from The People's Cube.


digg this
posted by Ace at 12:43 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
FenelonSpoke: "And another adorable doggy photo: http://tinyur ..."

Bruce: "And the government should handle the money because ..."

Duncanthrax: "[i]I think the performance of the country, given h ..."

FenelonSpoke: "And for the cat people-a kitten who loves to swim ..."

Mr. Peebles: "[i]Who knew that you can willingly give your money ..."

Bruce: "Now this is an NFL Player I can admire: http:/ ..."

Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing: "[I]Reagan went to a school I never heard of.[/I] ..."

FenelonSpoke: "Now this is an NFL Player I can admire: http:// ..."

Bruce: "Stray dog crashes a wedding and finds his own happ ..."

ScoggDog: "[i]We've been on a path to the middle class disapp ..."

fluffy: "Pennsylvania and 'Jersey morons: ..ENHANCED TH ..."

FenelonSpoke: "Stray dog crashes a wedding and finds his own happ ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64