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July 13, 2011

Afternoon Poll Porn Courtesy Rasmussen: Barack Obama 43, Generic Republican 48

Ouch.

Demographic breakdown:

Eighty-six percent (86%) of GOP voters support a generic candidate from their party, while 82% of Democrats back the president. Voters not affiliated with either political party favor the Republican 46% to 38%.
Male voters support the GOP candidate by 11 points, while females are evenly divided. Voters under the age of 40 favor the president, while their elders back the Republican.
Ninety-three percent (93%) of black voters and 53% of voters of other races back Obama, while 55% of whites prefer the Republican.
Conservatives (79%) overwhelmingly support the Republican, while 82% of liberals - and a majority (54%) of moderates - like the president.

Let me use this poll release to showcase the NEW design for the 2012 map projections. This will be the design for all prediction maps through November of next year. If this Rasmussen poll were applied to actual results, factoring in PVI per state and the party ID shifts Gallup reported earlier this year, here is how things break down in the electoral vote using our new map design (Warning, map is big. Very big.):


Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Needless to say if this was the scenario, the President would be pulling an LBJ. Ace feels we are heading towards a major realignment re-election, and while the evidence is scattershot, polls like this give weight to that idea. Further, the party identification shift in New Hampshire and the consistently bad results for Obama out of Pennsylvania definitely show chunks of the typically blue northeast are itching to go red. Still, November 2012 is a helluva long ways away.

*Note* In case of confusion color coding is based on likelihood of X or Y getting the seat, not by the margin in the vote. That code will be enlarged on the actual projection maps, for some reason it ended up very small here.

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posted by CAC at 03:28 PM

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