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June 21, 2011

Plunge: Obama Drops Net Nine in One Day

I don't know why Drudge is linking this, except it's fun to beat up on a dope.

A one-day swing like that is almost certainly noise.

But, it's fun to think about.

I have always thought that when opinion changes on Obama, it will change suddenly. That part of what's going on with his approval rating is Preference Falsification, a phenomenon of group psychology in which people don't express their true preference (or belief) because they think it is forbidden to think it or is strongly disfavored by the group. When the group starts talking more freely, however, people realize their true, suppressed (counterfeited) preference is in fact widely shared, and suddenly begin expressing their true preference.

As Glenn Reynolds' article on it noted, this is called a Preference Cascade.

That said, I don't think this occurs in a single poll in a single day. My idea of "sudden shift" in this context is a month or two.


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posted by Ace at 03:08 PM

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