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June 16, 2011

Generic Republican, Hero to All

Why hero to all?
Because he's beating Obama 44-39 according to Gallup (fresh off a winning poll result from Rasmussen as well).

Gallup gives us the usual, historically correct "dont read too much into this":

"Presidential preferences long before an election can give an indication of the current political environment, but their relationship to the eventual election outcome shows how much that environment can change in the months leading up to the election."

The poll of registered voters (implying, in my view, an even worse election-time result for the President since likely voters skew a few points further to the right) can be found here.

We are under 18 months away from election day, which is still an eternity-and-a-half in political cycles. However, the economic derailment now all but inevitable for Fall 2011 through early 2012 will not give the President the economic bounce Reagan and Clinton enjoyed.

With current conditions remaining stagnant, Obama currently faces a popular vote ceiling of 51.4%, and an electoral vote ceiling of 303, just 33 higher than the magical make-or-break number for re-election. Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and Nebraska's errant district are gone.

The closer to election day we move with conditions growing worse, the farther both ceilings will fall, and the more swing states drift from "possible" to "a bridge too far". If the electoral vote crosses under 270 for his internals before January 2012, he pulls a Lyndon Johnson and bows out of his re-election. You heard it here second (after Ace).

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posted by CAC at 07:19 PM

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