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May 25, 2011

Each Candidate's Route to Victory (Warning: Math and Crappy Maps Ahead)

So here is how this thread works. Elections are won in the Electoral College. The goal is 270 electoral votes, regardless of the national popular vote. Most of the candidates who have announced (besides fringe ones like Paul and Johnson) have at least some route I can see to 270. Just to beat up on Huntsman, I would like to illustrate that his “run” for the White House is absolutely dead before he even opens his mouth:

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Harvesting snail pee and collecting dead rats would be more fruitful exercises for that goofball.

Of the candidates announced so far, I have illustrated the hypotheticals for Pawlenty, Romney, Cain and Bachmann which show their possible routes to 270. I have also thrown Palin in the mix as well, and you may be shocked that I even give her a route, albeit a narrow one. Nothing would make lefties heads explode more than if Obama beat her in the national popular vote by five million yet she still squeaked by with a win in the electoral vote. Blue states can be considered off limits for them, red states very likely for them, and white, well you can figure it out.

Instead of saying “OMGZ!!! YOURR A HACK (what's new?) SO AND SO TOTALLY WOULD WIN THIS STATE TOO!!!”, this experimental thread gives you the chance to defend your candidate on a state-by-state basis. Claiming “anyone can beat Obama” can be mathematically silly when you see the generic republican ceding 190 electoral votes to Obama out of the gate. Where does YOUR candidate shine, and where can he/she improve? Are there certain states I am being too generous to the GOP on, or too generous to the Dem on? If you think, "WTF NO WAY PALIN LOSES MICHIGAN!" or "NO WAY ROMNEY WINS NEW HAMPSHIRE!", explain why you disagree. Since we are all in different states, you may have a better insight as to the current momentum or hatred the locals have for one of our party's choices.

Also, for kicks there is one candidate I can think of who has not declared, and will not win the primary, but who could very seriously put even the NE Blue Bloc in jeopardy (based off in-state polling and his personal popularity in that region). Hint- it isn't the Fat Guy.

The election is far, far away and a billion things can happen to alter these, but this is the lay of the land right now. All projection maps and polling are for kicks only, but there still some basic limits to the election in 18 months if you are willing to accept reality. We aren't going to win 40 states. We aren't going to lose 40 states. Boundaries keep the trolls and crazies classified as such.

First up, polling favorite Generic Republican:

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Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

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Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Enjoy. I'll be out painting, swimming, and drinking heavily before I stagger back in.

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posted by CAC at 06:14 PM

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