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May 01, 2011

Just for Fun, May 2011 Projections for 2012 Prez & Senate

Cannot stress enough that the entire world can change in 18 months so take these for what they are- laughably early projections of the Senate and Presidential race. Images are large, so read on.

The Senate map is coded ONLY by scale of GOP pickup---DEM retain. Our seats (all 10 of them) are pretty damn safe- Heller replacing Ensign makes that seat from leaning GOP hold to likely GOP hold, Brown and Collins are pretty secure in RINOLAND and aren't going to face credible primary challengers (I know, TheWomanThatShallNotBeNamed, blah blah blah, bite me).

On the Presidential side of things, remember Maine is one of the states that can split up its electoral votes. People tend to forget this when making projections. One of its two congressional districts is far, far more Democratic than the other, so even if the state were to go GOP as a whole it is likely 1 electoral vote goes for President Obama, barring a landslide loss of 389. Nebraska has the same thing, but at least this time, the Obamaha congressional district isn't going to flirt blue again, so it is shaded in solidly Republican here. Of the 2008 competitive states, Montana, North Dakota and Georgia were shaky then but solidly red here. Missouri barely went for McCain but is now very likely Republican heading into 2012. All other states besides Missouri shaded in brighter reds are pickups, in case there is any confusion.

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Oh, and go away.

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posted by CAC at 04:33 PM

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