Next Senator from Arizona? Gabby Giffords, Most Likely

You can't beat tragedy, especially not when coupled with instant sainthood. This Washington Times article speculates that Giffords would win easily if she runs -- and I have to think that's right. Because voters are dumb.

“If one assumes she’d be healthy enough to run, there’s nobody who could beat her,” said Mr. Merrill [a professor at ASU and a pollster]. “Now she’s got 100 percent name identification and 100 percent sympathy from the public. If she was well enough and she wanted the nomination, I don’t think there’s any question.”

Plus, because the media was determined to claim the conservative movement were co-conspirators in the shooting, we (most of us) rushed to note she was a moderate, not a liberal (and therefore not really the sort of person we nominate for killing at our weekly Murder List meet-ups), so she now has the whole conservative movement, mostly, swearing to her moderation and centrism.

I don't think it's a lost cause, but it's plenty tough.

The other candidate will also have almost 100% name recognition by the time of the election, and sympathy, while potent, doesn't mean you automatically win. But that is the way to bet, isn't it?

Plus, if Giffords enters the race, our best candidates will probably not enter the race, and in that way the prediction winds up making itself true.

So we start the cycle one down. We need five pickups for control.

posted by Ace at 11:55 AM

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