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December 21, 2010

Post-Census Reapportionment To Reward GOP States, Punish Liberal States

Subhed: Obama's losing electoral votes and it's not even 2011 yet.

Texas is the biggest winner, with four new Representatives (and electoral votes); Florida gains two more. NY and Ohio each lose two.

Other winners included Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. They each gained one seat.

States losing one seat each were Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Obama states lost six, net, though that's kind of misleading, as Ohio was a 2008 Obama state which is either a toss-up or leans GOP for 2012.

That doesn't mean Obama is doomed -- he had a lot of cushion in 2008 and can afford to lose some states, and some votes in the remaining states. But it does make his path to victory narrower and twistier. But still, unfortunately, quite doable.

In terms of the 2010 map, if you rank the states from the largest Obama margin to the largest McCain margin, Colorado was the state that put Obama over 270 (276). That does not change with the new apportionment — Colorado would now put Obama at exactly 270.

That means that there is a path to victory that does not include winning Virginia, Ohio, Florida, the 2nd CD in Nebraska, Indiana, or North Carolina.

I guess that Democratic analyst means he's writing off the tough-gets (OH, FL, that at-large district in NE, IN, and NC, all of which Obama carried) and saying he can squeak by with exactly the majority of electoral seats if he holds Colorado and Missouri. (Just looked that up to double-check: Nope, McCain won Missouri, so Obama doesn't need that to win.)

Colorado seems to get more liberal every year. Yikes. The GOP challenger needs, then, in all likelihood, a flip of one of Obama's other states, like New Hampshire.

Goddamnit. Do you realize that with one more move of a single electoral vote from a blue state to a red state Obama would need one of the hard-to-get states and thus start out in a huge hole? As it stands, he can afford to lose almost all the purple states and still win.

(Wait, just realized: I guess this analyst means Obama would still have to carry Nevada, too, which is in fact bluer than it used to be, but still is reddish-purple... on the other hand, President New Party won by 12.5% in 2008, so how reddish could it be?

This is not the good news I thought it was when I began writing this post.)

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posted by Ace at 04:00 PM

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