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November 04, 2010

Remarkable Prognostication

We haven't been relentlessly cribbing from Hot Air as much as usual lately. How about a piece by Patrick Ishmael that was featured in their "Green Room" right before election day?

He rated the GOP's chances in House Democrat-held seats, and listed them in order of probability of these seats being GOP flips. One hundred and thirty-four races, and he assigned a statistical probability to each & every one of them.

How did he do? Pretty damn good. His Top 50 included one that was too close to call (#42, CA-11) and one failed chance (#49, NY-23, which was rated as a 57% chance for a pickup). In fact, if you look at every race he rated as >50%, Republicans only failed to pick up two more than what I've already listed (#53, GA-2 and #55, NC-8 ). The four races he called as 50-50 tossups? Split down the middle two to two. And if you look at the races he called as less than 50% chances? Out of those 70 races, there was one still too close to call and SEVEN races where the GOP pulled off the upset. Of those seven, four of them were rated 40% or better for the GOP, and in the remaining three races, one of them is going down to the wire with a recount (IL-8 ). The only longshot race he whiffed on was Oberstar's shocking loss to Cravaack in MN-8.

Patrick, if you're reading this......do you know anything about the NFL? Because I could sure as hell use some help with my Moron Picks.

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posted by Russ from Winterset at 09:50 PM

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