Yeah, about not flipping the Senate this year...

In 2010, we couldn't grab the Senate in such hardcore Republican states like Connecticut, New York, California, and Washington; and we failed to beat an uber-popular Democratic governor in a state that has gone blue for the Senate since my grandfather was chasing tail as a 20 year old.
Certainly with such a teeeerrible performance of only grabbing seven over the course of the year, it isn't like 2012, you know, could be

Super-Mega-Fun-Time in red and very purple states:

Comparing just the Dem-held seats to the recent voter choices for Governor, House and even Senate races in the last year ("swing" seats in purple):

Now obviously things can change dramatically, but many prognosticators were warning Democrats before yesterday not to get excited if they hold the Senate this year because of the upcoming cycles. In the words of Charlie Cook: "given the imbalance of Senate seats up in 2012 and 2014, when the Democrats will have to defend almost twice as many seats as the Republicans, it seems quite likely that there is a GOP majority in our future." Yes, 2012 is a Presidential year, and the Obama v X can and will have an impact on a lot of these races. However, if you want a year to really flip the Senate, 2012 looks decent. I am not going to repeat Markos' bragging err of 2008, just pointing out to those of you disappointed by another 6 years of Reid and Boxer to look ahead, keep your pudding contacts in your phone, and get ready.

Speculation is fun.

posted by CAC at 11:20 AM

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