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October 31, 2010

Gallup's Final Generic: +15

Based on their models -- that is, how many points of a polling advantage translates into how many seats gained, and subject to the caveat that the safest seats are well gerrymandered to be all but election-proof, Gallup's prediction as to seats... starts at 60 as a floor.

Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.

It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.

BTW, I don't know how much gerrymandering helps you in this situation -- I suspect it actually hurts you. Because those super-Democratic seats are safe, sure, but what about the many others gerrymandered to have "merely" a 60-40 split?

The cobloggers are noting Biden's campaigning tomorrow in Vermont -- Vermont!!! -- and are wondering, well, is Vermont in play?

Senator Elect Len Britton?

Suffice to say if anything like that comes close to happening, Christine O'Donnell should pull it out.

Whoops! The double-post. Dang. A poll so nice I posted it twice.

Well, then, let me give you Drew's advice and suggest you check out page 2 of the report, the demographic breakdowns.

Key stuff: Republicans lead in all areas of the country -- 50-43 in the midwest, 52-44 in the east, 59-38 in the south, and 57-36 in the west. Although GOP candidates fare better in the west and south, those midwest and east leads are nothing to sneeze at -- pretty big leads in the Democrats' safety-school areas.

Men favor Republicans 59-36 -- which is huge -- but the stake in the hear of Democrats is the lead with women, too: 50-44. Again, not as eye-popping a lead, but a good lead nonetheless.

Let me play eeyore for a moment and suggest that part of this lead could be that conservatives and those opposed to Obama (including bitter, clingy Democrats) are really psyched and affirmatively wish to be polled, responding a lot more frequently than their Obama-supporting counterparts.

So... like, vote and stuff. To make sure this happens.

Thanks to Vince for that video suggestion.

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posted by Ace at 10:18 PM

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