Obama Coalition Breaking Up And Voting Republican Says...The NY Times. Also, John Boehner: Want To Know How Confident I Am? Check This Out!

Look, I'm going to give you a little candy here but that doesn't mean you don't have to eat your dinner like Ace tells you and Be the Wave. This is our little secret, okay? Just somethings to get you excited to vote and get others to vote too.

NY Times Poll...it seems other than blacks, just about everyone (including the college educated libs love to brag about) that voted for Obama is pretty much on board with the GOP this year.

Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans in the final phase of the midterm Congressional elections, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Roman Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents. All of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for Congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago, according to exit polls.

If women choose Republicans over Democrats in House races on Tuesday, it will be the first time they have done so since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.

...In the case of women — a traditionally Democratic-leaning group that the White House has been courting actively in recent weeks — the shift toward the Republicans was marked in the latest poll, especially when compared with their stated preferences in the last Times/CBS poll, in mid-September.

In the earlier poll, women favored Democrats over Republicans by seven percentage points. In the latest poll, women said they were likely to support a Republican over a Democrat by four percentage points, suggesting Republican gains among women who were undecided as of last month.

Now if that's too many words...here it is in a picture.

If Democrats lose women...well, they are in big trouble. Somewhat related, I'm reconsidering my opposition to the XIX Amendment.

Slu took a look at the crosstabs and notes that even with a heavily anti-Republican sample (in this of all years), the Times still can't get a result friendly to the home team.

10/21-26/10 R-28 D-37 I-31 n/a-4

10/21-26/10 Liberal-19 Moderate-37 Conservative-38 n/a-5

So much for the "those crazy tea parties are scaring moderates" stuff, at least with this poll.

Meanwhile, John Boehner is letting everyone know this in the bag by campaigning with Rich Iott. Iott is the guy running for Congress who like to do historical reenactments, including portraying the occasional Nazi SS soldier.

Forget whether or not it was a fair or unfair shot at Iott, if you are Boehner there are lots of places you can campaign the last weekend before the election and not re-open that can of worms or give people a cheap talking point. But if you are looking to find a way to telegraph to folks, "yep, I'm 100% positive I'm the next Speaker of the House" you might go with the old, "hey, let's campaign with the guy who plays Nazi" gag.

Democrats are desperately trying to save guys like Barney Frank and Boehner is out campaigning with like the most controversial Republican he can find in a race Real Clear Politics doesn't even have on their scoreboard.

Winston Wolfe would be disappointed and impressed with the audacity. But mostly impressed with the audacity.

So there you have your treats, now get back to work and Be the Wave.

posted by DrewM. at 09:09 AM

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