John Podhoretz: Four Scenarios

Like Geraghty's Obi-Wan said.

George W. Bush described the Democratic victory in 2006 (31 seats in the House, six in the Senate) as a "thumpin'." We're far beyond a thumpin', it appears.

Every serious and experienced observer believes Republicans will take the majority in the House by winning at least 37 seats, and in the Senate, that Republicans will take a minimum of six seats away from Democrats (they need 10 to take the majority there).

Restrained observers, like Charles Cook of the National Journal, expect something more like a batterin': "It would be a surprise if this wave doesn't match the 52-seat gain on Election Night in 1994, and it could be substantially more," he wrote yesterday. This is now a conservative estimate.

A 60-seat gain in the House would almost certainly be accompanied by a Republican takeover in the Senate; that would be a slaughterin'.

And I'm not sure one could come up with a word to describe a 70-seat victory: an evisceratin'?

So Democrats are hoping for a thumpin', probably now expecting a batterin', fearing a slaughterin' -- and can't bear to contemplate an evisceratin'. That's the real story of the final week of Election 2010.

The general news is bad for Dems, as usual.

Expressing deep dissatisfaction with President Obama’s policies and performance, independents have increasingly sided with conservatives in the belief that government grew too large, too fast under Obama—and that it can no longer be trusted. In the final pre-election Battleground Poll, Republicans hold a 14-point edge among independents and lead overall, 47 percent to 42 percent, in the generic ballot match up. Continue Reading Text Size

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The swing among independents rivals the emergence of the spirited Tea Party movement as one of the most important changes in American politics over the past 20 months. Many other polls have confirmed this trend over that period, even though it has been vastly overshadowed by coverage of more provocative characters and themes on the right.

The poll found these independents are merging with Republican voters, who remain decidedly more enthusiastic about voting next Tuesday, to threaten both the House and Senate Democratic governing majorities. The Republican lead expands to 12 points in the generic ballot among those “extremely likely” to vote.

Obama goes on Rev. Al Sharpton's show (eye roll) to say his name isn't on the ballot, but his agenda is.

Notice he only says this for a black audience. Why? Because every Democratic candidate is running as hard as possible away from that idea. If the voters know that a vote for the Democrat is a vote for Obama's agenda -- as he says, and as is the case, of course-- they'll get an evisceratin'.

It is only the Democratic bullshit that these are "individual races" and that each Democrat is independent of Obama and Pelosi that keeps these close at all.

So Obama: Why don't you say this on tv to a general audience?

Take your 37 percent job approval and tell the whole country -- not just the blacks who have a racial pride in, and emotional attachment to, you -- that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for the Obama agenda.

posted by Ace at 05:51 PM

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