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October 18, 2010

CAC's House Projections 10/18/2010 (Very Very Big Edition)

For the remaining House projections, I have decided to mix things up a bit for you morons.


Since even my larger maps are a bit hard to view the smaller districts, I redid the whole damn thing but in 12 separate parts to give as detailed (and nuanced) a projection as possible.
The last time I was projecting Delaware At-Large and Louisiana 2 going to the Democrats, and 63 seats going to the GOP for a net gain of 61 seats.

MN-1, MO-4, AZ-7, TX-27, VA-11, CT-4, IL-8 and a few others have been moved to "GOP pickup" now for a gain of 71 seats. [edited due to a math err]

I would have moved IL-10 to DEM PICKUP but a recent poll pushed it right back into tossup status.

Quick guide to the dozen maps:
(scaled in terms of GOP pickup likelihood)
Dark Red- GOP SAFE Hold
Bright Red- GOP Likely Flip (bet your pudding pile)
Magenta- GOP Moderate Flip (damned good odds we win this seat)
Pink- GOP Barely Flip (lowest odds but still pegging it as a win)
Yellow- Tossup
Light Blue- DEM Barely Holds (last station before Doomville)
Deep Sky Blue- DEM Moderate Hold (Democrat has decent odds but the race could be competitive)
Blue- DEM Likely Hold (the long-shot races, for now)
Dark Blue- DEM SAFE Hold
BlueGreen- DEM Pickup

OVERALL STATS-
SAFE DEM SEATS- 107
DEM PICKUPS - 2 (DE-AL and LA-2)
DEM LIKELY HOLD- 20
DEM MOD HOLD- 9
DEM BARELY HOLD- 9
TOSSUP (DEM HELD)- 41
TOSSUP (GOP HELD)- 2 (IL-10 and HI-1)
GOP BARELY FLIP- 41
GOP MOD FLIP- 19
GOP LIKELY FLIP- 11
SAFE GOP SEATS- 174
Projected House: GOP 245 Toss-Up 43 DEM 147
New Jersey and New England Congressional Races 2010

New York Congressional Races 2010

Pennsylvania Congressional Races 2010

Ohio Congressional Races 2010

Mid/South Atlantic Congressional Races 2010

Florida 2010 Congressional Races

Deep South Congressional Races 2010

Great Lakes Congressional Races 2010

Midwest and Rockies Congressional Races 2010

Four Corners and Texahoma Congressional Races 2010

PacNW, Hawai and Alaska Congressional Races 2010

California and Nevada Congressional Races 2010

Oh yeah, and be the wave...

digg this
posted by CAC at 01:26 PM

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