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October 18, 2010
CAC's House Projections 10/18/2010 (Very Very Big Edition)
For the remaining House projections, I have decided to mix things up a bit for you morons.
Since even my larger maps are a bit hard to view the smaller districts, I redid the whole damn thing but in 12 separate parts to give as detailed (and nuanced) a projection as possible.
The last time I was projecting Delaware At-Large and Louisiana 2 going to the Democrats, and 63 seats going to the GOP for a net gain of 61 seats.
MN-1, MO-4, AZ-7, TX-27, VA-11, CT-4, IL-8 and a few others have been moved to "GOP pickup" now for a gain of 71 seats. [edited due to a math err]
I would have moved IL-10 to DEM PICKUP but a recent poll pushed it right back into tossup status.
Quick guide to the dozen maps:
(scaled in terms of GOP pickup likelihood)
Dark Red- GOP SAFE Hold
Bright Red- GOP Likely Flip (bet your pudding pile)
Magenta- GOP Moderate Flip (damned good odds we win this seat)
Pink- GOP Barely Flip (lowest odds but still pegging it as a win)
Yellow- Tossup
Light Blue- DEM Barely Holds (last station before Doomville)
Deep Sky Blue- DEM Moderate Hold (Democrat has decent odds but the race could be competitive)
Blue- DEM Likely Hold (the long-shot races, for now)
Dark Blue- DEM SAFE Hold
BlueGreen- DEM Pickup
OVERALL STATS-
SAFE DEM SEATS- 107
DEM PICKUPS - 2 (DE-AL and LA-2)
DEM LIKELY HOLD- 20
DEM MOD HOLD- 9
DEM BARELY HOLD- 9
TOSSUP (DEM HELD)- 41
TOSSUP (GOP HELD)- 2 (IL-10 and HI-1)
GOP BARELY FLIP- 41
GOP MOD FLIP- 19
GOP LIKELY FLIP- 11
SAFE GOP SEATS- 174
Projected House: GOP 245 Toss-Up 43 DEM 147
![New Jersey and New England Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4153/5093474055_24fb75b0d8.jpg)
![New York Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4125/5094072574_55d560e3a4.jpg)
![Pennsylvania Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4148/5094071436_8a97304ca7.jpg)
![Ohio Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4148/5094070762_a5baf0e280.jpg)
![Mid/South Atlantic Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4108/5093470449_cfdaf53e05.jpg)
![Florida 2010 Congressional Races](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4144/5094131098_19cf937bc1.jpg)
![Deep South Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4110/5093469229_1e1aed4edc.jpg)
![Great Lakes Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4131/5093468561_fe7afb02dc.jpg)
![Midwest and Rockies Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4110/5093467599_a232be4b87.jpg)
![Four Corners and Texahoma Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4106/5094066074_7885a1f021.jpg)
![PacNW, Hawai and Alaska Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4131/5094065066_1fafeb7a15.jpg)
![California and Nevada Congressional Races 2010](http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4149/5093464567_544d50ffbb.jpg)
Oh yeah, and be the wave...