CAC's House Projections 10/18/2010 (Very Very Big Edition)

For the remaining House projections, I have decided to mix things up a bit for you morons.

Since even my larger maps are a bit hard to view the smaller districts, I redid the whole damn thing but in 12 separate parts to give as detailed (and nuanced) a projection as possible.
The last time I was projecting Delaware At-Large and Louisiana 2 going to the Democrats, and 63 seats going to the GOP for a net gain of 61 seats.

MN-1, MO-4, AZ-7, TX-27, VA-11, CT-4, IL-8 and a few others have been moved to "GOP pickup" now for a gain of 71 seats. [edited due to a math err]

I would have moved IL-10 to DEM PICKUP but a recent poll pushed it right back into tossup status.

Quick guide to the dozen maps:
(scaled in terms of GOP pickup likelihood)
Dark Red- GOP SAFE Hold
Bright Red- GOP Likely Flip (bet your pudding pile)
Magenta- GOP Moderate Flip (damned good odds we win this seat)
Pink- GOP Barely Flip (lowest odds but still pegging it as a win)
Yellow- Tossup
Light Blue- DEM Barely Holds (last station before Doomville)
Deep Sky Blue- DEM Moderate Hold (Democrat has decent odds but the race could be competitive)
Blue- DEM Likely Hold (the long-shot races, for now)
Dark Blue- DEM SAFE Hold
BlueGreen- DEM Pickup

OVERALL STATS-
SAFE DEM SEATS- 107
DEM PICKUPS - 2 (DE-AL and LA-2)
DEM LIKELY HOLD- 20
DEM MOD HOLD- 9
DEM BARELY HOLD- 9
TOSSUP (DEM HELD)- 41
TOSSUP (GOP HELD)- 2 (IL-10 and HI-1)
GOP BARELY FLIP- 41
GOP MOD FLIP- 19
GOP LIKELY FLIP- 11
SAFE GOP SEATS- 174
Projected House: GOP 245 Toss-Up 43 DEM 147

Oh yeah, and be the wave...

posted by CAC at 01:26 PM

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