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This is one of those that's on ace's WTF version of the RCP battleground map, currently a toss-up. TX-23 covers San Antonio and runs out west to the edge of El Paso, mostly rural with 2/3 of the voters in SA. It was Henry Bonilla's (R) for ten years until redrawn to expand the Hispanic population.
Canseco is a businesman and family man, who actually knows something about creating jobs, meeting a payroll, something an awful lot of those in Congress know damn little about. The incumbent, Ciro Rodriguez is a fairly reliable Dem caucus voter (my complaint about Chet Edwards), but on occasion bucked the party line, including votes against the porkulus bill. But the wave is in a "take no prisoners" mood and it's not hard to see him getting swept away by it.
The only polling info I've found is from August showing Canseco up 43% to 37%, with a 4.9% MOE.