Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« Fox News Polls: Republicans Doing Well In Key Senate Races | Main | Olbermann: Lean Forward Into Hateful Misogyny »
October 12, 2010

Please, no premature releases over the current Senate Projection

Although it would be hard to avoid:


US Senate Projection 10/12/2010

Since the direct election of Senators was amended to the Constitution in 1914, if the House flips during the election cycle (ending in November), the SENATE ALWAYS TAGS ALONG. The opposite does not always hold true (see 1980), but this rule of if H then S is a 96 year old election rule. So quit pud-pulling on one and hemming on the other.

We currently have 5 seats looking red with 99% odds:
Arkansas (bye bye Blanche)
North Dakota (Dorgan's old seat)
Indiana (Bayh's old seat)
Pennsylvania (Snarlin' Arlen's seat, though Sestak did the one honorable thing in the campaign and annihilated him early)
Wisconsin (FIN, Feingold)

Thats the easy 5.

Now the next 3 leaning GOP seats:
West Virgina R+5.5
Raese has taken this cakewalk for Manchin into a dark twisted Dalinean nightmare for him. In West Virginia there are two simple political equations right now:
Manchin = popular governor.
Obama = hated President.
Raese took popular Manchin, added "rubberstamping for Obama" and turned him into something worse than Hitler singing Justin Bieber as a Senator.
Manchin has spun and spun and spun his positions, but the armor is off and Raese has a tsunami of cash he has no problem dumping. 3rd time is the charm for Raese and he wins.
(note- yes I did see the PPP poll today showing Manchin voters "waking up". After reading Jensen's constant "wake up the Dems and we still win meme" I take it with a grain of salt as his previous and current poll show movement within the margin of error. I still say Raese is in a good position despite)

Colorado R+5
Despite the recent PPP poll (and it is interesting to note PPP remains the only firm to show Bennet constantly beating Buck ALL CYCLE) showing him down 1, other polling and the donation currents show this race going from a tie to increasingly Buck, albeit by a tighter margin than others.

Illinois R+3
With the macaca moment Alexi "Schultz" Giannoulias just gave us in the Illinois senate race, the scales tip a bit harder to Mark Kirk (who would be Lame Duck seat #42). Kirk has already seen his numbers improve in Rasmussen and PPP gradually as voters have started to make up their minds in a contest of eh verses huh. Kirk also has a considerable money advantage in the last few weeks to remind voters of Ali G's dirty laundry...er... "lack of oversight". (RCP and 538 and ElectionProjection and ElectoralVote shows Kirk winning as well)

We are now at +8.

Now comes the whipped cream on the pudding:

Nevada R+2
Reid has blown $20 million+, defined Angle as a total nut, drove her negatives to his levels, pumped up the None of the Above option, is a sitting Senate Majority leader, and has a 24 year career as Senator.

He is still in the 40s and losing in the aggregate. He is done in one of the closest races in the country.

Washington R+1.5

"Finding ballots" can save you when it is a 500-1000 vote race. A bit harder when the margin spreads out to my projection for Dino, but fraud is something Seattle has made the most of. It is essential conservatives keep their eyes and ears open during Election day and the critical "lolz look what we found" red zone between Nov 2 and certification. Rossi fell behind about a month ago due to Murray's advertising. He has raised $4.4 million however and is starting to unleash that Kraken on Dum-dum. He pulls ahead in a squeeker, backed up all the more by recent polling. (RCP shows Rossi winning now as of 10/12/2010)

As for the seats in waiting (the Democratic "firewall of fail"):

Connecticut- Blummenthal up 5 right now.
Polling shifted hard away from Linda McMahon all last week, but since her ads using Smegma's non-answer on jobs, we have seen at least one showing it shifting back to a tossup (Pulse/Rasmussen released today- McMahon 43% Blumenthal 49%). I think giving him a five point edge may actually be too generous, depending on how this last push by Linda impacts voters.

California (my home state)- Boxer up 3.
The Golden State is notoriously hard to poll in a close election cycle.
Even elections perceived close, like the recall of Davis in 2003, had its polls showing Davis hanging on when he got totally blown out of the water.
very recent polling released out of the state show the race back to the 2-4 point range, and with no on-the-ground enthusiasm here for Boxer, it's where I am pegging her at. A heartbreaker for now, but could very easily end up being a great night for us all on November 2nd if these numbers are "off" or tighten.

Now is the time where I leave you all to faint/naynaynay.

digg this
posted by CAC at 11:27 AM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
I used to have a different nic: "[i]So why was this one man's life deemed a higher ..."

Warai-otoko: "I suppose there's an argument that a nationally pr ..."

Gref: "62 DEI hire Brown Jackson is officially the dumbes ..."

SMOD : "Dailymail: The suspected killer of UnitedHealthCa ..."

XTC: "I'm just here to laugh at the Dallas Cowboys. ..."

kids hairdos: "Nice blog here! Also your site loads up fast! What ..."

kid haircuts: "Hello! Quick question that's totally off topic. D ..."

hair cuts for kids: "I think that what you posted made a ton of sense. ..."

Someday I'll choose a nick and stick with it. Today is not that day! Dangerous Radical: "Umm, you might want to take a gander at the last f ..."

fd: ""Federal employees are scrubbing their Facebook an ..."

Ciampino - screw the J6 Committee: "[i]Jim Clyburn Expresses Support For Trump Pardoni ..."

baby hair salon: "Attractive portion of content. I simply stumbled u ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64