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October 12, 2010

Please, no premature releases over the current Senate Projection

Although it would be hard to avoid:

US Senate Projection 10/12/2010

Since the direct election of Senators was amended to the Constitution in 1914, if the House flips during the election cycle (ending in November), the SENATE ALWAYS TAGS ALONG. The opposite does not always hold true (see 1980), but this rule of if H then S is a 96 year old election rule. So quit pud-pulling on one and hemming on the other.

We currently have 5 seats looking red with 99% odds:
Arkansas (bye bye Blanche)
North Dakota (Dorgan's old seat)
Indiana (Bayh's old seat)
Pennsylvania (Snarlin' Arlen's seat, though Sestak did the one honorable thing in the campaign and annihilated him early)
Wisconsin (FIN, Feingold)

Thats the easy 5.

Now the next 3 leaning GOP seats:
West Virgina R+5.5
Raese has taken this cakewalk for Manchin into a dark twisted Dalinean nightmare for him. In West Virginia there are two simple political equations right now:
Manchin = popular governor.
Obama = hated President.
Raese took popular Manchin, added "rubberstamping for Obama" and turned him into something worse than Hitler singing Justin Bieber as a Senator.
Manchin has spun and spun and spun his positions, but the armor is off and Raese has a tsunami of cash he has no problem dumping. 3rd time is the charm for Raese and he wins.
(note- yes I did see the PPP poll today showing Manchin voters "waking up". After reading Jensen's constant "wake up the Dems and we still win meme" I take it with a grain of salt as his previous and current poll show movement within the margin of error. I still say Raese is in a good position despite)

Colorado R+5
Despite the recent PPP poll (and it is interesting to note PPP remains the only firm to show Bennet constantly beating Buck ALL CYCLE) showing him down 1, other polling and the donation currents show this race going from a tie to increasingly Buck, albeit by a tighter margin than others.

Illinois R+3
With the macaca moment Alexi "Schultz" Giannoulias just gave us in the Illinois senate race, the scales tip a bit harder to Mark Kirk (who would be Lame Duck seat #42). Kirk has already seen his numbers improve in Rasmussen and PPP gradually as voters have started to make up their minds in a contest of eh verses huh. Kirk also has a considerable money advantage in the last few weeks to remind voters of Ali G's dirty "lack of oversight". (RCP and 538 and ElectionProjection and ElectoralVote shows Kirk winning as well)

We are now at +8.

Now comes the whipped cream on the pudding:

Nevada R+2
Reid has blown $20 million+, defined Angle as a total nut, drove her negatives to his levels, pumped up the None of the Above option, is a sitting Senate Majority leader, and has a 24 year career as Senator.

He is still in the 40s and losing in the aggregate. He is done in one of the closest races in the country.

Washington R+1.5

"Finding ballots" can save you when it is a 500-1000 vote race. A bit harder when the margin spreads out to my projection for Dino, but fraud is something Seattle has made the most of. It is essential conservatives keep their eyes and ears open during Election day and the critical "lolz look what we found" red zone between Nov 2 and certification. Rossi fell behind about a month ago due to Murray's advertising. He has raised $4.4 million however and is starting to unleash that Kraken on Dum-dum. He pulls ahead in a squeeker, backed up all the more by recent polling. (RCP shows Rossi winning now as of 10/12/2010)

As for the seats in waiting (the Democratic "firewall of fail"):

Connecticut- Blummenthal up 5 right now.
Polling shifted hard away from Linda McMahon all last week, but since her ads using Smegma's non-answer on jobs, we have seen at least one showing it shifting back to a tossup (Pulse/Rasmussen released today- McMahon 43% Blumenthal 49%). I think giving him a five point edge may actually be too generous, depending on how this last push by Linda impacts voters.

California (my home state)- Boxer up 3.
The Golden State is notoriously hard to poll in a close election cycle.
Even elections perceived close, like the recall of Davis in 2003, had its polls showing Davis hanging on when he got totally blown out of the water.
very recent polling released out of the state show the race back to the 2-4 point range, and with no on-the-ground enthusiasm here for Boxer, it's where I am pegging her at. A heartbreaker for now, but could very easily end up being a great night for us all on November 2nd if these numbers are "off" or tighten.

Now is the time where I leave you all to faint/naynaynay.

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posted by CAC at 11:27 AM

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