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October 10, 2010

CAC's Current US House Election Prediction Map

Not as dramatic as the pudding-splashing one yesterday, but pretty damning nevertheless:


CAC's current US House 2010 Race Projection

Bad News: we have 4 to defend, and 2 of them are likely gone.

Good news: the Democrats have a good EIGHTY-SEVEN they need to seriously worry about, more than double what we need to flip control. This map does NOT include races that are the long-shots-but-still-possible. These are ONLY the ones where the data, fundraising, and trendlines show we have a very good shot of winning, or we are likely to win via my projection. There is also one surprise seat that based on some local information I have posted in toss-up. You might know the guy, I will leave it up to you morons to figure it out.

VULNERABLE GOP SEATS:
IL-10, DE-AL, LA-2, HI-1
Of these, Djou's in Hawaii and Kirk's old seat in Illinois are toss-ups. The other two are likely to go Democratic.

OPEN SEATS:
NY-29 and TN-6
Both are likely to go GOP.

VULNERABLE DEM SEATS IN TOSS-UP STATUS:
MA10, CT4, CT5, NY 1, NY13, NY19, NY24, NY25,
PA 4, PA12, VA 9, VA 11, WV1, OH6, OH13, OH18,
IN2, IL8, IL17, NC2, NC11, TN4, FL22, GA2, GA8,
AL2, MN8, IA3, MO4, TX23, CO7, NM1, AZ7, CA11,
CA20, CA47, CA51, OR5, WA2, WA9

Now, as for the 47 Democrat-held seats I project, as of 10.10.10, to flip and give us control of the United States House of Representatives...

THE LIST OF THE PUDDING'D:
NH-1, NH-2, NY-23, NJ-3, MD-1, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11,
OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, VA-2, VA-5, MI-1, MI-7, MI-9, IN-8, IN-9, IL-11, IL-14,
WI-7, WI-8, NC-7, NC-8, SC-5, TN-8, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, LA-3, MS-1, AR-1,
AR-2, KS-3, ND-AL, SD-AL, TX-17, NM-2, CO-3, CO-4, AZ-1, AZ-5, AZ-8, NV-3, WA-3

This is the gun-to-my-head prediction map, but I can easily see 1/3 of the tossups joining the aforementioned 47 for a total of 67 seats.
I will be posting daily if possible the latest polling news and analysis and I will update my projections as time permits as your resident election numbers guru/geek/man who seriously needs to stop obsessing over this political cycle.

Alas, now is the time and place where I leave you to boast, scream, hoot, and holler ( or whine, nitpick, Eeyore and but-but-but yourselves until you are magenta in the face).

digg this
posted by CAC at 10:39 PM

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