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October 10, 2010

CAC's Current US House Election Prediction Map

Not as dramatic as the pudding-splashing one yesterday, but pretty damning nevertheless:

CAC's current US House 2010 Race Projection

Bad News: we have 4 to defend, and 2 of them are likely gone.

Good news: the Democrats have a good EIGHTY-SEVEN they need to seriously worry about, more than double what we need to flip control. This map does NOT include races that are the long-shots-but-still-possible. These are ONLY the ones where the data, fundraising, and trendlines show we have a very good shot of winning, or we are likely to win via my projection. There is also one surprise seat that based on some local information I have posted in toss-up. You might know the guy, I will leave it up to you morons to figure it out.

IL-10, DE-AL, LA-2, HI-1
Of these, Djou's in Hawaii and Kirk's old seat in Illinois are toss-ups. The other two are likely to go Democratic.

NY-29 and TN-6
Both are likely to go GOP.

MA10, CT4, CT5, NY 1, NY13, NY19, NY24, NY25,
PA 4, PA12, VA 9, VA 11, WV1, OH6, OH13, OH18,
IN2, IL8, IL17, NC2, NC11, TN4, FL22, GA2, GA8,
AL2, MN8, IA3, MO4, TX23, CO7, NM1, AZ7, CA11,
CA20, CA47, CA51, OR5, WA2, WA9

Now, as for the 47 Democrat-held seats I project, as of 10.10.10, to flip and give us control of the United States House of Representatives...

NH-1, NH-2, NY-23, NJ-3, MD-1, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11,
OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, VA-2, VA-5, MI-1, MI-7, MI-9, IN-8, IN-9, IL-11, IL-14,
WI-7, WI-8, NC-7, NC-8, SC-5, TN-8, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, LA-3, MS-1, AR-1,
AR-2, KS-3, ND-AL, SD-AL, TX-17, NM-2, CO-3, CO-4, AZ-1, AZ-5, AZ-8, NV-3, WA-3

This is the gun-to-my-head prediction map, but I can easily see 1/3 of the tossups joining the aforementioned 47 for a total of 67 seats.
I will be posting daily if possible the latest polling news and analysis and I will update my projections as time permits as your resident election numbers guru/geek/man who seriously needs to stop obsessing over this political cycle.

Alas, now is the time and place where I leave you to boast, scream, hoot, and holler ( or whine, nitpick, Eeyore and but-but-but yourselves until you are magenta in the face).

digg this
posted by CAC at 10:39 PM

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