Overnight Open Thread | Main | Top Headline Comments 10-11-2010
October 10, 2010

CAC's Current US House Election Prediction Map

Not as dramatic as the pudding-splashing one yesterday, but pretty damning nevertheless:

CAC's current US House 2010 Race Projection

Bad News: we have 4 to defend, and 2 of them are likely gone.

Good news: the Democrats have a good EIGHTY-SEVEN they need to seriously worry about, more than double what we need to flip control. This map does NOT include races that are the long-shots-but-still-possible. These are ONLY the ones where the data, fundraising, and trendlines show we have a very good shot of winning, or we are likely to win via my projection. There is also one surprise seat that based on some local information I have posted in toss-up. You might know the guy, I will leave it up to you morons to figure it out.

IL-10, DE-AL, LA-2, HI-1
Of these, Djou's in Hawaii and Kirk's old seat in Illinois are toss-ups. The other two are likely to go Democratic.

NY-29 and TN-6
Both are likely to go GOP.

MA10, CT4, CT5, NY 1, NY13, NY19, NY24, NY25,
PA 4, PA12, VA 9, VA 11, WV1, OH6, OH13, OH18,
IN2, IL8, IL17, NC2, NC11, TN4, FL22, GA2, GA8,
AL2, MN8, IA3, MO4, TX23, CO7, NM1, AZ7, CA11,
CA20, CA47, CA51, OR5, WA2, WA9

Now, as for the 47 Democrat-held seats I project, as of 10.10.10, to flip and give us control of the United States House of Representatives...

NH-1, NH-2, NY-23, NJ-3, MD-1, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11,
OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, VA-2, VA-5, MI-1, MI-7, MI-9, IN-8, IN-9, IL-11, IL-14,
WI-7, WI-8, NC-7, NC-8, SC-5, TN-8, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, LA-3, MS-1, AR-1,
AR-2, KS-3, ND-AL, SD-AL, TX-17, NM-2, CO-3, CO-4, AZ-1, AZ-5, AZ-8, NV-3, WA-3

This is the gun-to-my-head prediction map, but I can easily see 1/3 of the tossups joining the aforementioned 47 for a total of 67 seats.
I will be posting daily if possible the latest polling news and analysis and I will update my projections as time permits as your resident election numbers guru/geek/man who seriously needs to stop obsessing over this political cycle.

Alas, now is the time and place where I leave you to boast, scream, hoot, and holler ( or whine, nitpick, Eeyore and but-but-but yourselves until you are magenta in the face).

digg this
posted by CAC at 10:39 PM

| Access Comments

Recent Comments
Mike Hammer, etc., etc.: "Nope. Can't the Nazis and the Commies lose? I am f ..."

Anna Puma (HQCaR): "Speaking of work, best get ready for it. Have an e ..."

J.J. Sefton: " 510 Posted by: Alpine Crotch at July 17, 2018 09 ..."

Brother Cavil, Abbot of St. Costello-on-the-Hurlingbone: "[i]There are two keys to bringing back a serious c ..."

SSBN 656 (G): "Nobody hacked anything (despite the new meme that ..."

willow: "ha why would anyone trust ' putin? of course we c ..."

Donna&&&&&&V sez don't you dare walk the damn pitcher: "450 I believe Poland is once again in danger of i ..."

NaCly Dog: "There are two keys to bringing back a serious coun ..."

illiniwek: "Putin mentioned that $400M ... which is probably n ..."

Trump poisoned my cat: "503: "Which is why they hope a right-wing "patr ..."

Brother Cavil, Abbot of St. Costello-on-the-Hurlingbone: "[i]In U-Haul's case it is both. The man shit his p ..."

CoolHandLuke: "Re: "I hate to say it, but as a last resort, the D ..."

Recent Entries

Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64