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October 07, 2010

Rothenberg Report: Mini-Surge For Democrats Means They Will Lose By Slightly Less

Maybe a moral victory.

You know why they call it a moral victory, right? To contrast it with the other kind, the real victory.

There is a Democratic mini-surge going on, we are told, as some campaigns produce poll numbers showing they have been prematurely written off as, well, dead.

...

This cycle, many Democrats I talk with acknowledge that big defeats are inevitable, but they then go on to argue their candidate is the one who is going to survive, pointing either to a new poll, the presence of a third-party candidate on the ballot or the alleged unelectability of the GOP challenger.

So, you get situations such as Rep. Betsy Markey (D-Colo.) trying to alter the conventional wisdom that she is destined to lose by releasing a campaign poll showing her tied with Republican challenger Cory Gardner at 38 percent, with two other candidates drawing a combined 7 percent.

Forget the fact that any Democratic incumbent getting 38 percent of the vote in September of an election year is toast. Also ignore the fact that other polling, not yet released, conducted more recently by a Republican pollster for whom I have the highest regard shows Markey trailing badly.

Are we really to believe that Markey — who represents a district won narrowly by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) two years ago, by President George W. Bush by 17 points in 2004 and by Bush by more than 20 points in 2000 — is going to get re-elected if and when Democrats lose 30 seats in the House?

Remember, Markey voted for the stimulus bill, the health care reform bill and cap-and-trade after coming into my office as a candidate and stressing that she was a moderate Democrat.

So I’m supposed to believe that at least a couple dozen other Democratic seats are going to turn Republican, but Markey’s seat isn’t?

He then goes on to giggle at Democrats crowing that they've "surged" all the way up to 45% -- pointing out that 45% is not, no matter how surge-y, 50%.

Meanwhile, at Hot Air, the Democrats are taking money out of races once considered lean Dem and putting into races once considered safe Dem.

his week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began running ads in seats held by Reps. Bill Delahunt (Mass.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Phil Hare (Ill.), Bill Foster (Ill.),Leonard Boswell (Iowa), Sanford Bishop (Ga.), and John Salazar (Colo.). In each district, Democrats won re-election by significant, if not overwhelming, margins in 2008. Now, Democrats view every one of those seats as endangered. …

Meanwhile, much more vulnerable Democrats, who face much better-funded Republican challengers, are seeing their ad buys cut, a clear sign that Democrats believe spending money on their behalf is a waste of resources. Earlier this week, Democrats cut ad buys in districts held by Reps. Betsy Markey (Colo.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Chet Edwards (Texas), and Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), and in open seats being vacated by Reps. Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) and Dennis Moore (Kan.).


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posted by Ace at 06:36 PM

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