Headline: "Butts Arrested In Boob Murder Case" | Main | Mayor/King For Life Richard Daley Not Seeking Reelection
September 07, 2010

Computer Simulations Predict 51 Seat GOP Gain

At Hot Air's headlines, political scientists run 1000 simulated contests and find a 51 seat gain to be the most likely scenario. (Or, I guess, that's average of the scenarios, I guess an under-over.)

The below chart shows how many seats the Democrats are expected to win, and the peaks for each interval indicate the frequency that particular seat-count comes up. The red/blue is not about how many seats each wins; it just indicates that if Democrats win under 218 seats, as the case for most of the graph, then the House will be under Republican control.


2010-08-26-BEWmodel-thumb.png
Credit: Bafumi & Erickson

They cite one successful prediction...

Two weeks before Election Day in 2006, we posted a prediction that the Democrats would gain 32 seats and recapture the House majority.

But that's not a long track record, and I note they don't themselves call out their 2008 prediction. I assume that one was off.

In their chart, there is a genuine possibility of the Democrats only winning around 185 seats. The Democrats hold 256 seats now (including one open seat formerly controlled by them), so... well there seems to be a genuine possibility, on the high end of course, of a 71 seat gain. And I don't even believe that's the ceiling, either.

In more poll news:

Rasmussen: GOP holds 12 point advantage with likely voters. This matches the biggest GOP lead, ever, as found by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen: Fiorina takes (insignificant) lead over Boxer, 48-47. I still go by the rule tied is ahead, even on Rasumussen.

In this video, political reporters tell Scarborough that Feingold is in real trouble in Wisconsin.


digg this
posted by Ace at 02:07 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Insomniac - mostly stable : "One of my all time fave P&F songs is "Weaponry" as ..."

IllTemperedCur: " 431 Best animated sequence ever -- the opening o ..."

The Last Man at the CDC: "I like it when autistic children screech on top of ..."

Ignoramus: "" how long does the shutdown go on before the Dems ..."

qdpsteve: "Remember the name of the heavy metal band in KOTH? ..."

Roc Ingersol : "I totally disagree about Hank and Bobby being a fl ..."

MAGA: "290 ''Congress' inability to reach a budget agreem ..."

rickl: "[i]505 How did auto correct get violent out of cou ..."

Castle Guy: "I'm a huge animation, although really stylized ani ..."

Mark Andrew Edwards [/i] [/b]: "494 Or, a Cotton Hill episode. Great stuff. Pos ..."

Skip: "Its for the Dreamers so suck it up ..."

otho: "otho, true, Bobby was never that interesting. ..."

Recent Entries
Search


MuNuvians
Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat
Archives
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64