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September 07, 2010

Computer Simulations Predict 51 Seat GOP Gain

At Hot Air's headlines, political scientists run 1000 simulated contests and find a 51 seat gain to be the most likely scenario. (Or, I guess, that's average of the scenarios, I guess an under-over.)

The below chart shows how many seats the Democrats are expected to win, and the peaks for each interval indicate the frequency that particular seat-count comes up. The red/blue is not about how many seats each wins; it just indicates that if Democrats win under 218 seats, as the case for most of the graph, then the House will be under Republican control.

Credit: Bafumi & Erickson

They cite one successful prediction...

Two weeks before Election Day in 2006, we posted a prediction that the Democrats would gain 32 seats and recapture the House majority.

But that's not a long track record, and I note they don't themselves call out their 2008 prediction. I assume that one was off.

In their chart, there is a genuine possibility of the Democrats only winning around 185 seats. The Democrats hold 256 seats now (including one open seat formerly controlled by them), so... well there seems to be a genuine possibility, on the high end of course, of a 71 seat gain. And I don't even believe that's the ceiling, either.

In more poll news:

Rasmussen: GOP holds 12 point advantage with likely voters. This matches the biggest GOP lead, ever, as found by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen: Fiorina takes (insignificant) lead over Boxer, 48-47. I still go by the rule tied is ahead, even on Rasumussen.

In this video, political reporters tell Scarborough that Feingold is in real trouble in Wisconsin.

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posted by Ace at 02:07 PM

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