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August 26, 2010

Rasmussen: California Senate Race is a Dead Heat

Sorry for starting the day with a poll post, but the possibility that I may have to eat my words (predicting a Boxer win) cannot be ignored.

Other polls have had Fiorina ahead of Boxer, but not Rasmussen. Okay, Rasmussen isn't quite there yet, but it's close:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 44% support, while Fiorina picks up 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

[...]

When leaners are included in the new totals, Boxer moves ahead by five points 49% to 44%. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

We are 68 days out from the election and Boxer hasn't really made her move yet. I haven't seen her ads much on TV or radio, except for the news when the President comes out to fundraise. Her short internet ads aren't interesting enough to be passed around much.

So she's just marking time right now. Probably until the first (the only?) primetime debate, which will be September 1. After that, both campaigns will unleash the barrage of televised half-truths that Californians are used to.

The other thing she has to look forward to is the President coming back to help her. Unlike the rest of the country, Californians haven't wised up. They like him and they like that she's tied to him, according to this Reuters guy.

Fiorina-side: An independent group just launched a week-long TV blitz here in L.A. against Boxer for trashing Medicare as part of the ObamaCare package. That's a smart move. Aim at seniors, you get more reliable bang for your buck. Hook it to ObamaCare, which even out here doesn't poll that well, and it's got even more oomph.


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posted by Gabriel Malor at 09:53 AM

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