Overnight Open Thread | Main | Slate: Joe Miller's Embarrassing Defeat
August 25, 2010

Miller Edges Murkowski?
Joe Miller Talking Cocky; Anchorage Daily News Reports Miller Just Requested "Two Cups of Pudding and Some Privacy"

The Ace of Spades Decision Desk Is Prepared To Make a Call...

Based on the Miller's confidence (a new mention of that at the Other McCain) and Murkowski's lack of it (she is not talking to reporters, but sent out a spokesman to claim "We're still optimistic"), and the fact that it's 4:00am, I'm calling it:

Joe Miller wins.

Well, that at $12 will buy you a pack of cigarettes in NYC, but I'm going to sleep thinking it's in the sack, as it were.

tim3rd sent that to me tonight; I haven't heard that song in 30 years. It's from 1981, Reagan's first year; I am really thinking it's just cheesy enough, and properly themed, to be some kind of goofy victory song.


...

Whoo!

Lead grows slightly. With 33.3% in, it's now 51.2% to 48.8%. Previously it had been 50.75% to 49.25%.

36.2% in, lead stays the same.

Okay, A Little Shakiness... I asked on Twitter, "Is this one of those Detroit situations where Anchorage comes in and all of a sudden Murkowski's up by 5%?"

Someone answered, yeah, it is more left-leaning, and it's about 40% of the state's total population. (40%!) So this is that time where we'd like to have Barone telling us how counties are breaking.

Or Is Anchorage Already In? Stephantawney, who seems to know what he's talking about, thinks Anchorage may be coming in early:

Not sure, but Anchorage consumes house districts 19-32, and ADN has many of those reporting now.

This tweet by Anchorage Daily News has Joe Miller with a giddy smile and talkin' smack about Alaska "rejecting an entitlement state"... I'd say he knows he won.


But New Update: Cancel pudding for now, hearing Anchorage not in.

Okay, I have no idea: The Other McCain's Alaska correspondent (at the convention where they first put up the results) says that these results are from metro Anchorage, but I've had it backwards -- Anchorage actually favors Miller, while "the bush" favors Murkowski, or at least that is what people are guessing. (I guess there hasn't been much detailed polling.)

Well actually he doesn't know if Anchorage favors Miller, but the hinterlands, it is theorized, favor Murkowski. Drew figures that may be due to reliance on federal largesse -- which is what the Murkowski legacy is all about.

As you can see there is a lot of bad guessing by me, I'm going to try to find an Alaskan news radio station.

Radio Feed: Livestream from Alaska. They're saying that Miller thinks he has it... They are waiting on the bush (we all know what that's like), but the think Miller may have it.


Another Cocky Tweet From Miller:

JoeWMiller America, keep in mind the potential: this was done with a mostly all-volunteer campaign staff

I am almost ready to put up the headline I wanted...






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