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June 29, 2010
Wow: Daily Kos Admits Highly Publicized Research 2000 Polling Was "Likely Bunk"To say he "admits" it isn't quite right; this isn't a grudging admission, but a statement that he feels he was defrauded. So, he publicized bunk polls, but at least he's copping to it.
I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk. Okay, that's a clear admission. But note he's renouncing any post he's written. Not any book. I point this out because he's got a book about "The American Taliban" (that would be you all) coming out in two months, and it seems to me very likely that his various Research 2000 polls which painted conservatives in an extremist light were part of his case there. I guess he'll probably delete references to the Research 2000 polls while keeping all the conclusions, because, let's face it, it's not as if his beliefs were based on polling and other objective indicators anyway. Thanks to Slublog and Drew. Falsified? The actual statistical case against the polls is not one about mere methodological failure, but of simply making stuff up. 1. A large set of number pairs which should be independent of each other in detail, yet almost always are either both even or both odd. The statistical analysis suggests that these numbers were simply made up on the fly, and the reason for these odd occurrences is that people screw up when trying to make things look random. For example, in point number 2, a smaller sub-sample should show much wilder variation than your main (big) sample, because you're polling many fewer people in that subgroup and hence the Margin of Error is of course larger. But Research 2000 consistently seems to find what you'd call "likely numbers" for these groups -- numbers that seem to make sense, that accord with your gut instinct. But that's a mistake, because, statistically, with these small subgroups, you should be getting what looks like clearly outside-the-margin-of-error stuff very frequently. In other words, if your numbers are genuine, statistics demands that a lot of these small sub-group numbers look like complete and utter garbage. If they all keep looking like what you'd expect them to look like, that's because they're not real, but rather someone making up numbers that accord with your gut. Not So Random Walk?: I think for the past year people have cited these polls, after an initial skepticism, on the theory that they sort of looked like the other polls, only a little more skewed liberal. Well, it turns out that maybe they looked like the other polls, only skewed a bit more liberal, because they just took the other polls and pushed the numbers a little more liberal. I have joked around with a pollster I know that I can do just that for far cheaper than her company can -- hey, pay me $10,000, I'll just take a blend of polls from Real Clear Politics and push the numbers around slightly. I give you a discount because I'm just making this up based on other polls and it takes me only a few hours to fake it up; but, on the other hand, let's face it, it's almost as good as the real thing, right? I mean, honestly, how far off will my fake numbers be from the real ones? I don't know what's happened here and am reluctant to malign a company with an allegation this large (which, if true, would surely destroy the company entirely). But they haven't responded to Kos about these problems for two weeks. Will the MFM Retract? The media didn't use a lot of these polls, but they did use them on occasion. Like, Ezra Klein, lefty blogger hired by the Washington Post. TPM isn't real media but the lefty media treats it like it is; they loved themselves some R2K polls, too. Thanks to Slublog for that, again. Kos: I Can't Wait For You To Read My Book Because It's Loaded With Great Research 2000 Polling Info: I noted that his book American Taliban had been partly based on R2K polling. From NRO, here's Kos pimping that aspect of it. As I've mentioned before, I'm putting the finishing touches on my new book, American Taliban, which catalogues the ways in which modern-day conservatives share the same agenda as radical Jihadists in the Islamic world. But I found myself making certain claims about Republicans that I didn't know if they could be backed up. So I thought, "why don't we ask them directly?" And so, this massive poll, by non-partisan independent pollster Research 2000 of over 2,000 self-identified Republicans, was born.
Wow! It's almost like the poll knew exactly what you wanted it to say, dude! Man did you get lucky!!!11!eleventy!! | Recent Comments
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Daily Tech News 4 October 2024
Everyone Loves The ONT Global Warming Cafe Our Liberal Media Betters: Make-Up Artist Alleges That Leftwing Country Music Has-Been Garth Brooks R*ped Her Liz Cheney Will Campaign With Kamala Harris In "The Symbolic Birthplace of the Republican Party" in Wisconsin Politico: Tim Walz Sometimes Has a Tendency to "Misspeak" Jen Psaki Interviews the Guy Who Impregnated His Nanny and Demanded She Abort It and Later Allegedly Punched His Girlfriend in Public; She Asks Him What It Feels Like to be the New Model of Masculinity Update: Even More Redefining of Masculinity Chris Murphy Proposes Antisemitic Conspiracy Theory: Netanyahu Isn't Fighting the War to Save His Nation, But Just to Deny Harris the Ceasefire She Craves and Thereby "Influence" the US Elections Mayorkas Announces That FEMA is Out of Money; Just Maybe the Billion of FEMA Funds Harris-Biden Has Spent on Illegal Aliens Might Be Why The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Search
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