Iraq National Election: Cross Sectarian Party Declared Winner In Tight Outcome

Democracy is a process not and event. As great as holding elections is, how the losers accept the outcome is just as important. Iraq is about to find out how the process is going to work.

Ayad Allawi's predominantly Sunni alliance has won Iraq's national election, narrowly edging out Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki's list to become the largest bloc in the country's next parliament.

The upset threatens to end the lock on power that Iraq's majority Shiites have enjoyed since the 2003 after decades of oppression under Saddam Hussein and could severely test the country's fragile institutions. Before the announcement, Shiite politicians warned of violence should their parties lose the election.

The preliminary results announced Friday night show Mr. Allawi's Iraqiya bloc winning 91 seats in the 325-member parliament to 89 seats for Mr. Maliki's State of Law.

In a hastily convened press conference, the prime minister announced he would press for a recount, citing suspicions of fraud.

Maliki has three days to file a protest, which seems likely.

Should the elections stand, Allawi, who served as interim Prime Minister under the Coalition Provincial Authority back in 04-04 before Maliki's election, will have first crack at forming a governing coalition.

People shouldn't jump to conclusions that because there's going to be a challenge or a period of instability and negotiation that this is all a failure, though you know the regular suspects will.

It also doesn't mean that all will be well.

I think one thing we've all learned about Iraq is not to jump to conclusions. It's a fluid place that works on its own time line and in its own ways. They don't have centuries of traditions with this sort of stuff to fall back on, so there will be fits and starts. This will be one of those 'seems' that the forces of instability (on both sides and from outside) will try to exploit. They will likely have some spectacular success in terms of attacks but the big thing will be the general trends.

I'd feel better if we have the old Bush, Crocker, Petraeus team there to support the Iraqis but life moves on and so too will the Iraqis.

posted by DrewM. at 03:36 PM

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