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March 19, 2010

Mid-Day Spine Stiffener

Folks, you are effing pussies. As of this morning, Pelosi had 192 members "definitely voting yes." She was 24 votes shy and there were 28 maybes.

After "yeses" from Boyd, Boccieri, Titus, Perriello and a "no" from DeFazio she's at 195 members voting yes. She's 21 votes shy and there are 24 maybes left. This isn't bad. Guess what, puddin' heads: the race was always going to get tighter before it was finished. Big, giant DUH.

Now, sure, all those maybes are Democrats, which means their natural tendency will be to stick together. Going against that tendency is their individual desires to get reelected and the certain asswhoopin they're going to get in November as a result of voting in favor of this bill.

Pelosi can definitely do this. I'm not saying that we're going to win. But it is far from clear that we're going to lose at this point. She and Hoyer are still racing around trying beg, buy, and steal votes. MoveOn just sent out an "emergency" message trying to gin up support.

A reminder once again, Fox News' "whip count" which supposedly places Pelosi one vote away from 216 has no basis in reality. No other whip counts on either the right or the left have things that close. We don't have it that close because too many members keep saying they are undecided. Fox is making too many unexplained assumptions.

Also, all this "OMG they switched from 'no' to 'yes'" is also unhelpful. Divorce in your mind any member's November "no" vote from anything they are doing now. They're not flipping "no" to "yes." At least, it's not any worse than a "yes" staying "yes." All that matters is the total 216 votes, not where they get them from. It's not like we're going to lose if we don't get a certain amount of "no" votes. What does it matter? Remember, several "yes-in-November" votes have become "no-in-March" votes. Doesn't mean anything except: (1) this is a different bill; and (2) the political environment is vastly changed.

Instant Update: And even as I wrote this, Altmire confirmed that he's voting no. That brings the maybes down to 23. Guess what, three more declare for us and Pelosi cannot reach 216! Smile, it's not over yet.

And be sure and read FDL whip count's latest pre-Altmire update He's also coming up with a three-vote deficit being the margin.

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posted by Gabriel Malor at 04:33 PM

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