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March 17, 2010

Whip Count 3-16-10 BUMPED: As Heard On Rush Limbaugh

UPDATED (3/18, 4:20EDT) Welcome Rush Fans! You can find Gabriel's most recently updated whip count here.

[DrewM.] Rush was talking about this post, so I've moved it up so newcomers can see it.

First a note on the whip count. In one sense, a public whip count is pointless. It's only as good as each congressman's publicly stated word, which we all know is worth spit. On the other hand, one way of making congressmen more accountable for their word is to share it with as many of their constituents as possible. Demanding that they publicly declare their position, like what you see going on for the past week on the left, puts pressure on them to stick to their word.

It also helps give us an idea of who to target. Folks who fail to take a public stance are, perhaps, persuadable. Obama will persuade with bribes. We can bribe with votes. One of my favorite writers wrote: "Corruption means elected officials trading votes for their own advantage; democracy means a bloc of voters doing the same thing. The electorate knows the difference." And that's exactly what we're talking about with the healthcare shenanigans going on in Congress.

Alright, and now for the whip count update.

Dan Maffei says he will be voting for the healthcare bill, so I've removed him from "Yes, but Maybe" and added him to the Dems definitely on board. Same thing for Ann Kirkpatrick. Same with Mike Doyle.

Jason Altmire announced that "deem and pass is wrong", but that doesn't mean he won't support the bill. So I'm not moving him out of the "No, But Maybe" category just yet.

On the bright side, Glenn Nye is making noises that sound like "no" via email to constituents. Unfortunately, there's no public statement and he's still waiting for a final bill before he decides. So I'm not moving him out of the "No, But Maybe" group.

Finally, Ace and some others think Dennis Kucinich is about to switch from "Not No Way" to a sure vote for the bill. I'm going to wait to put him in the "Definitely Yes" group, but I'll move him to "No, But Maybe" to reflect that he may be having second thoughts about his Sunday op-ed which blasted the Senate bill.

All told, that gives Pelosi 192 votes. She's 24 short. There are 26 "maybes" left.

Thanks to Ryan, shank, enoxo, Brian, and Shooter McGavin.

Late Edit: Gahh! I was counting as if there were still 255 Dems in the House. There aren't. There are only 253. Which means that Pelosi is two votes behind where I thought she was. Total is adjusted to match. Somebody better check my math...

Alright, the names are below the fold:

No Pretty Much Means No:
These were twenty-one "No" Democrats in November who still make noises that sound like "no". Nancy is trying to get a few of these to change their votes and the President is prepared now to offer bribes like the Louisiana Purchase. This group goes in the Definitely Not, Not No Way, Not No How category, having already announced that they will stand by their earlier votes.

John Adler (NJ-3), Dan Boren (OK-2), Bobby Bright (AL-2), Ben Chandler (KY-6), Artur Davis (AL-7), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Tim Holden (PA-17), Larry Kissell (NC-8 ), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Jim Marshall (GA-8 ), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), Mike McMahon (NY-13), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), Walt Minnick (ID-1), Collin Peterson (MN-7), Mike Ross (AR-7), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-All) Heath Shuler (NC-11), Ike Skelton (MO-4), Gene Taylor (MS-4).

Wont Vote For A Bill That Kills Babies:
Then there's the Stupak Dozen. These are "yes" votes in November that are now "no" votes. The confirmed members are: Bart Stupak (MI-1), Marion Berry (AR-1), Joe Cao (LA-2, Republican), Jerry Costello (IL-12), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), Dan Lipinski (IL-3), Tom Perriello (VA-5). The conjectured final members include Henry Cuellar (TX-28 ), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9).

It's An Election Year:
Then there's the other "yes" votes who have publicly switched: Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Chris Carney (PA-10), and Luis Guterrez (IL-4). I wouldn't count on Gutierrez to stand by his "no" threat, though. He looks like he's trying to wring some concessions out of the leadership on the proposed comprehensive immigration piece of shit. Carney is a lock; he wants to get re-elected. Arcuri sounded pretty sure of himself, but we'll see.

That leaves the maybes. There are ten who voted "yes" the first time, but have refused to commit to voting the same way this time:

Tim Bishop (NY-1), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ).

And there are sixteen who voted "no" the first time who could be victims of Rahm-in-the-lockerroom-with-the-lead-pipe bullying or Cornhusker Compromise bribery because they haven't declared yet what they plan to do:

Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10), Bart Gordon (TN-6), Betsy Markey (CO-4), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2).

So Pelosi needs 24 out of 26 maybes to break her way.

NOTE: If you think I've got one of these guys in the wrong group and have a public statement from the Congresscritter demonstrating it email me at [gabriel.malor at gmail] and I will update the count.

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posted by Gabriel Malor at 02:26 PM

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