Whip Count 3-17-10

First, a note on the "fauxmentum" mentioned by Ace earlier. Today Democrats Dale Kildee and Jim Oberstar announced that they would be supporting the healthcare bill and the media had a spasm reporting that they were "Stupak allies" who were bailing on him. This is an extension of the argument over the weekend that Stupak's Dozen were really Stupak's Half-Dozen and that even they were crumbling.

Uh... no. This is a misleading attempt to scare wavering Democrats into thinking that momentum is building for deeming the Senate language good enough for pro-life Democrats (you see what I did there?). Look down at my "Stupak's Dozen" category. Guess who was never in it: Dale Kildee and Jim Oberstar. In other words, of course they're voting for the bill. Everyone knew this. Their announcement today, intended only to burnish their own dubious pro-life credentials for furious constituents and put pressure on Stupak, does not change the numbers. Their "yes" votes do not get Pelosi any closer to 216.

Now, today's changes to the whip count:

Going in the "Definitely Voting Yes" category is Dennis Kucinich. That puts Pelosi one closer to her goal and reduces the "maybes" by one. Kucinich was the only "yes" vote not already in my "yes" column who announced today.

But in a surprise announcement Sanford Bishop (GA-2) switched from "yes" to "undecided." I thought Bishop was a Definite Yes (and I still expect him to go that way in the end), but for now he's going back in the "Yes, but Maybe" pile, adding to Pelosi's headache.

Also going back into the group of "Maybes" is Heath Shuler (NC-11), who I had in the "No Means No" group. That gives Pelosi another possible target for a pick-up.

Tom Perriello (VA-5), one of the Stupak Dozen, stated that he is satisfied with the Senate language on abortion, but that he remains undecided on the overall bill. So Stupak's Dozen is now Stupak's Eleven (fine, fine, he's losing some, happy legacy media?) and Perriello goes in the "Yes, but Maybe" group.

As for "maybes" announcing that they will vote "no", I have no media statements from these guys today. There are a few reports that staffers in the office of Lincoln Davis (TN-4) are saying he is a "no" vote, but nothing has made it into the media. The same is true for John Barrow (GA-12). My whip count is based on media statements, "official" statements, because I think they're slightly less likely to lie when it's "on the record" than when they're talking to constituents on the phone. Sad, but not unreasonable. So, no changes for them yet.

So where does that leave us? Pelosi still has 192 (the Kooch and Bishop are a wash). This leaves her 24 votes short of the necessary 216. There are 28 maybes, 16 who voted "no" on the November House bill.

Thanks to Jane, Jonathan, Jeff, Rocks, Timothy, and Nick.

The names are below the fold. If you're going to make phone calls, I still think my list from yesterday are the ones most likely to vote no.

No Pretty Much Means No:
These are twenty "No" Democrats in November who still make noises that sound like "no". This group goes in the Definitely Not, Not No Way, Not No How category, having already announced that they will stand by their earlier votes.

John Adler (NJ-3), Dan Boren (OK-2), Bobby Bright (AL-2), Ben Chandler (KY-6), Artur Davis (AL-7), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Tim Holden (PA-17), Larry Kissell (NC-8 ), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Jim Marshall (GA-8 ), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), Mike McMahon (NY-13), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), Walt Minnick (ID-1), Collin Peterson (MN-7), Mike Ross (AR-7), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-All), Ike Skelton (MO-4), Gene Taylor (MS-4).

Wont Vote For A Bill That Kills Babies:
Then there are Stupak's Dozen Eleven. These are "yes" votes in November that are now "no" votes because of the Senate abortion funding. The confirmed members are: Bart Stupak (MI-1), Marion Berry (AR-1), Joe Cao (LA-2, Republican), Jerry Costello (IL-12), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), Dan Lipinski (IL-3). The conjectured final members include Henry Cuellar (TX-28 ), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9).

It's An Election Year:
Then there's the other "yes" votes who have publicly switched: Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Chris Carney (PA-10), and Luis Gutierrez (IL-4). Don't forget that Gutierrez may just be playing games for the proposed comprehensive immigration reform bill.

Maybe:
That leaves the maybes. There are now twelve who voted "yes" the first time, but have refused to commit to voting the same way this time:

Sanford Bishop (GA-2), Tim Bishop (NY-1), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Tom Perriello (VA-5), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ).

And there are sixteen who voted "no" the first time who could be victims of Rahm-in-the-lockerroom-with-the-lead-pipe bullying or Cornhusker Compromise bribery because they haven't declared yet what they plan to do:

Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Bart Gordon (TN-6), Molly Markey (CO-4), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), Heath Shuler (NC-11), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2).

So Pelosi needs 24 out of 28 maybes to break her way.

NOTE: If you think I've got one of these guys in the wrong group and have a public statement from the Congresscritter demonstrating it email me at [gabriel.malor at gmail] and I will update the count.

posted by Gabriel Malor at 12:35 AM

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