Nomentum: John Adler is a "No."

John Adler is a "No." I've moved him from the "No, But Maybe" group into the "No Means No" category, which means Pelosi now needs 25 out of 28 "maybes". See update below.

Put another way, we only need four of the "maybes" to vote "no" and there aren't enough Dems left to pass the bill.

Additional signaling today came from Marion Berry, one of the Stupak Dozen, who voted for the reconciliation bill in committee, and from Allen Boyd, one of the supposed "No, but Maybe" guys, who voted against the reconciliation bill in committee.

Berry swears he ultimately won't vote for abortion funding, but, well...he lies. A lot. Boyd hasn't told anyone what he's up to, and he may still be courted by Pelosi. Without more info, I'm not moving them from where I've got them.

Oops. And More Updates:

First, I only had eleven folks in the Stupak Dozen. That's because I left off Tom Perriello (VA-5), who has said several times that he will not support the Senate abortion language. His staff just confirmed to one of our commenters that "if the abortion language is not changed he will vote no." I've added his name to the Stupak Dozen category below (and checked my math to make sure all 255 Dems are accounted for).

Second, Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ) released a statement a few minutes ago, announcing her willingness to be bought. She says, "When and if these problems are addressed, I will publicly commit to vote for this historic health insurance reform legislation." Based on that, I'm not ready to move her out of the "Yes, but Maybe" category. I think it very likely that she will vote for the bill, but she hasn't said that she will yet.

Pelosi's goal is still 25 out of 28 "maybes."

Thanks to Nick and Brian for the updates.

Whip Count is below the fold:

Nancy needs 216 votes. She has 191 Democrats definitely on board, so she's 25 short. Here's where she can get them.

No Pretty Much Means No:
These were twenty-two "No" Democrats in November who still make noises that sound like "no". Nancy is trying to get a few of these to change their votes and the President is prepared now to offer bribes like the Louisiana Purchase. This group goes in the Definitely Not, Not No Way, Not No How category, having already announced that they will stand by their earlier votes.

John Adler (NJ-3), Dan Boren (OK-2), Bobby Bright (AL-2), Ben Chandler (KY-6), Artur Davis (AL-7), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Tim Holden (PA-17), Larry Kissell (NC-8 ), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Frank Kratovil (MD-1), Dennis Kucinich (OH-10), Jim Marshall (GA-8 ), Mike McIntyre (NC-7), Mike McMahon (NY-13), Charlie Melancon (LA-3), Walt Minnick (ID-1), Collin Peterson (MN-7), Mike Ross (AR-7), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-All) Heath Shuler (NC-11), Ike Skelton (MO-4), Gene Taylor (MS-4).

Wont Vote For A Bill That Kills Babies:
Then there's the Stupak Dozen. These are "yes" votes in November that are now "no" votes. The confirmed members are: Bart Stupak (MI-1), Marion Berry (AR-1), Joe Cao (LA-2, Republican), Jerry Costello (IL-12), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3), Joe Donnelly (IN-2), Steve Driehaus (OH-1), Brad Ellsworth (IN-8 ), Dan Lipinski (IL-3), Tom Perriello (VA-5). The conjectured final members include Henry Cuellar (TX-28 ), Marcy Kaptur (OH-9).

It's An Election Year:
Then there's the other "yes" votes who have publicly switched: Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Chris Carney (PA-10), and Luis Guterrez (IL-4). I wouldn't count on Gutierrez to stand by his "no" threat, though. He looks like he's trying to wring some concessions out of the leadership on the proposed comprehensive immigration piece of shit. Carney is a lock; he wants to get re-elected. Arcuri sounded pretty sure of himself, but we'll see.

Maybe:
That leaves the maybes. There are thirteen who voted "yes" the first time, but have refused to commit to voting the same way this time:

Tim Bishop (NY-1), Mike Doyle (PA-14), Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-8 ), Baron Hill (IN-9), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Alan Mollohan (WV-1), Solomon Ortiz (TX-27), Bill Owens (NY-23), Earl Pomeroy (ND-All), Nick Rahall (WV-3), Zack Space (OH-18 ).

And there are sixteen fifteen who voted "no" the first time who could be victims of Rahm-in-the-lockerroom-with-the-lead-pipe bullying or Cornhusker Compromise bribery because they haven't declared yet what they plan to do:

Jason Altmire (PA-4), Brian Baird (WA-3), John Barrow (GA-12), John Boccieri (OH-16), Rick Boucher (VA-9), Allen Boyd (FL-2), Travis Childers (MS-1), Lincoln Davis (TN-4), Bart Gordon (TN-6), Molly Markey (CO-4), Jim Matheson (UT-2), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Glenn Nye (VA-2), John Tanner (TN-8 ), Harry Teague (NM-2).

So Pelosi needs 25 out of 28 maybes to break her way, 15 of whom voted "no" on the House bill once before.

NOTE: If you think I've got one of these guys in the wrong group and have a statement from the Congresscritter demonstrating it email me at [gabriel.malor at gmail] and I will update the count.

posted by Gabriel Malor at 07:17 PM

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