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March 11, 2010

Oh, My: Safe Democratic Yes Flips to "Probably Not, Because I Think the Senate Bill Is Awful and Can't Be Fixed"
Update: Sort of Old; Jay Cost Noted His Objections March 5th

A likely no at this point.

I did the "Oh My" thing in the headline because unless I'm missing something, this guy wasn't on the of either possible Dem pick-ups or possible GOP pick-ups -- not even a long-shot chance of the GOP flipping him. (Am I retarded, or is the name "Capuano" entirely missing from all four of Hotline's lists?)

And yet what was apparently considered a solid Democratic Yes vote not even worth discussing very much signals he's now a no.

Thanks to AHFF Geoff.

Old-ish: Jay Cost already noted this guy's reservations on March 5, but doubts he will really vote against the President at the end of the day.

Cost is treating his objections as a not-seriously-meant political marker.

Update: Not truly old -- the letter he wrote outlining his objections is dated today.

But he has made similar objections in the past. Does the formality of a letter to constituents mean he's more serious about voting no than Cost previously credited him as?

I'm waiting for Cost to put me some f'n' knowlege.

Longer View? DrewM. notes Capuano challenged Coakley to run for "The Ted Kennedy Seat" The Scott Brown Seat, and that he might be tacking towards he center to vie again for the Senate seat in 2012.

Jay Cost Says It Doesn't Change His Opinion: His reasoning is that statements like this only lock a politician in if they have a competitive race in 2010. So, Heath Shuler is sort of locked-in by speaking out against reconciliation.

Capuano, in his safe seat, isn't so locked in and has no threat from the right, so this is just as likely to be posturing/negotiating with Pelosi, he says.

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